Final Early Vote Numbers in (Nevada, Florida, North Carolina,) Trend a Touch Toward Democrats. ~ The Scorecard

We have nearly final numbers from Early Voting in these three key Battleground states, and things have improved by a decent bit for Democrats, although one state is lagging slightly.

Nevada:

The Nevada 2016 early vote electorate looks pretty much identical to the Nevada eearly electorate of 2012. In Swing Washoe County, Democrats actually improved slightly, going from about a 1000 vote deficit to a 1000 vote victory. In Clark County, Democrats cast 73,000 more votes than Republicans. Democrats therefore gained about 4,000 votes of margin in urban Nevada vis a vis 2012 numbers. This was offset by slightly larger gains for the G.O.P. in the Rural Counties, meaning that Democrats cast 48,000 more votes in 2012 and about 46,000 more votes in 2016. Obama’s comfortable win in 2012 makes the 2016 margin feel quite safe. The Senate race does have a bit of sizzle going into the final day but the math for Trump is prohibitively difficult: not 100%, but close to 95% (If you want to be an expert, read Jon Ralston from Nevada) https://www.ralstonreports.com/

Florida:

This is where things have gotten much better for Democrats. From a small early gap which refused to shrink, Florida now have 88,000 more Democrats than Republicans vote. What is more, Democrats hold an even larger 200,000 vote lead amongst voters who have a low propensity to turnout. Equally important for their chances, turnout among the segment of the electorate that is not affiliated with a party, is much less white than the overall electorate and contains a surprisingly high shares of low propensity voters. The Hispanics vote is incredible. 450,000 more Hispanics voted in 2016 early vote than in 2012. This means already nearly more Hispanics have voted in 2016 than voted in 2012. Every single one of these numbers is good for Democrats. While there have been some fears on African American turnout, African Americans have cast 70,000 more ballots than in 2012. While Florida still figures to be a very close state, and, as we discussed yesterday, margin matters with Non-Whites, overall Florida looks as if it is trending for Clinton. (All of this with the help of https://twitter.com/electionsmith and Steve Schale)

North Carolina:

The early voting here is where Clinton probably is most disappointed, but not all the news is bad from her perspective. Point one is that there is basically no doubt that Clinton leads with ballots already cast. And ballots already cast are equal to 70% of those who voted in 2012. With that being said the Democratic lead amongst ballots cast has dropped, and more worrisome for Democrats, African Americans have cast roughly 64,000 ballots. In a state where Democrats need to make up 92,000 votes, that is not excellent. Democrats, did compensate slightly with about 35,000 more other non-white votes, and Urban Millenials are leading the charge amongst those without a party affiliation.

The one thing which is not clear is whether this year’s early vote totals might partly be the result of a change in strategy amongst Democrats and Republicans. In 2012 Democrats cast tons of these votes early. 66% of Democrats voted early versus 58% for Republicans. Democrats may simply have chosen this cycle to focus on getting out their voters with a lower likelihood to vote, and Republicans may have begun to get in on pushing all their voters to vote early. In contrast, the Romney strategy in 2012 was to focus on lower propensity voters. Since Democrats still likely won early vote this year, it very much remains to be seen whether turnout patterns have changed. Democrats have more a fighting chance on election day if their total so far is mostly low propensity voters while the Republicans have burnt a lot of their total. If the 2012 patterns continue, then things for Clinton get more difficult. If Republicans still have 42% of their vote to go and Democrats only have 33%, Clinton is cooked, if Republicans did more moving there E-day vote to Early, and Democrats focused on low-propensity, then the race could tilt the other way. Expect a photo finish regardless.

Conclusion:

Since Clinton has many paths to win with Nevada, she has to like her position, particularly since Florida looks good for her as well. We have also seen incredibly high turnout so far, which may bode well for a big total for election day.