Final Prediction

Top Lines

Clinton electoral vote 333 Trump 205 electoral vote

Senate 51D versus 49R

House R’s 229 versus D’s 206

Clinton States 

Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, D.C.

Trump States
Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming

Tossup Calls

President,

Ohio, and Georgia (Trump) Arizona, North Carolina, and New Hampshire (Clinton)

Senate New Hampshire (Hassan-D)  Missouri (Blunt – R), North Carolina (Ross- D)

Super Surprise possibility Murphy over Rubio

Another potential shocker -  McMullin takes Utah

Reasoning:

It is fair to say we are more in line with the Upshot and those who believe Clinton is favored. The polling shows Clinton up by a pretty solid median of 4. We also believe that with ground game and early vote analysis, Clinton has more potential polling upside than Trump. The Clinton camp did more work on the mechanics side, and across the board it seems to paying off.  We are inclined toward the view that the electorate will be less white and the Clinton margin will be greater. The chance for Trump’s 2-1  is that his lead with uneducated whites grows even larger.

Alabama 

President Trump

Senator Richard Shelby (R)

House

D's 7

R's  1,2,3,4,5, 6 

Alaska

President Trump

Senator Lisa Murkowski (R)

House

AK AL R 

Arizona

President Clinton  

Senator John McCain (R)

House

D’s  1,3, 7 9

R’s 2,4,5,6,8

Arkansas

President Trump

Senator John Boozman (R)

House 
R’s 1,2,3,4

California

President Clinton

Senator Kamala Harris (D)

House

D’s 2,3,5,6,7,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,40,41,43,46,47,49,51,52,53

R’s 1,4,22,23,39,42,45,48,50

Colorado

President Clinton

Senator Michael Bennet (D)

House

D 1,2,6,7

R, 3,4,5

Connecticut

President Clinton

Senator Richard Blumenthal (D)

House

D’s 1,2,3,4,5

Delaware

President Clinton

House 

D’s AL

D.C.

President Clinton

Florida 

President Clinton

Senator Marco Rubio

House

D’s  5,7,9,10,13,20,21,22,23,24,26

R’ 1,2,3,4,6,8,11,12,14,15,16,17,18,19,25,27

Georgia

President Trump

Senator Johnny Isakson (R) some chance for runoff.

House

D’s 2,4,5,14

R’s  1,,3,6,7,8.9,10,11,12,13

Hawaii

President Clinton

Senator Brian Schatz (D)

House

D’s 1,2

Idaho

President Trump

Senator Michael Crapo (R)

House

R’s 1, 2

Illinois 

President Clinton

Senator Tammy Duckworth

House 

D  1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,17

R 6,11,12,13,14,15,16

Indiana

President Trump

Senator Todd Young (R)

House 

D 1,7

R 2,3,4,5,6,8,9

Iowa

President Trump

Senator Chuck Grassley (R)

House

D’s 2

R 1,3,4

Kansas

President Trump 

Senator Jerry Moran (R)

House

R’s 1,2,3,4

Kentucky

President Trump

Senator Rand Paul (R) 

House

D’s 3

R’s 1,2,4,5,6

Louisiana  

President Trump

Senator Runoff (Likely Campbell (D) V. Kennedy(R), but who knows)

House

D's 2

R's 1,3,4,5,6

Maine

President Clinton

Maine 1 Clinton,

Maine 2  Trump

House

D’s 1

R’s 2   

Maryland

President Clinton

Senator Chris Van Hollen (D)

House

D’s 2,3,4,5,6,7,8

R’s 1

Massachusetts

President Clinton

House 

D’s 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9

Michigan

President Clinton

House 

D’s 5,9,12,13,14

R’s 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10,11

Minnesota

President Clinton

House

D’s 1,2, 4,5,7

R’s 3,6,8

Mississippi

President Trump

House

D’s 2

R’s 1,3,4

Missouri

President Trump

Senator Roy Blunt (R)

House

D’s 1,5

R’s 2,3,4,6,7,8

Montana

President Trump

House

R’s AL

Nebraska

President Trump

Nebraska 1  Trump

Nebraska 2 Trump

Nebraska 3 Trump

House

D’s 2 

R’s 1,3

Nevada

President Clinton 

Senator Catherine Cortez Masto

House 

D’s 1, 3,4

R’s 2

New Hampshire

President Clinton

Senator Maggie Hassan (D)

House 

D’s 1,2

New Jersey

President Clinton

House

D’s 1,5,6,8,9,10,12

R’s  2,3,4,7, 11, 13

New Mexico

President Clinton

House

D’s 1,3

R’s 2

New York

President Clinton

Senator Chuck Schumer

House

D’s 3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,22,25,26

R’s 1,2,11,23,24, 27,

North Carolina 

President Clinton

Senator Deborah Ross (D)

House

D’s 1,4, 12

R’s 2,3,5,6,7,8,9, 10,11,13

North Dakota

President Trump

Senator  John Hoeven

House 

R’s AL

Ohio

President Trump

Senator Rob Portman (R)

House 

D’s 3,9,11,13

R’s 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,10,12,14,15,16

Oklahoma

President Trump

Senator James Lankford (R)

House

R’s 1,2,3,4,5

Oregon

President Clinton

Senator Ron Wyden (D)

House

D’s 1,3,4,5

R’s 2

Pennsylvania

President Clinton

Senator Katie McGinty (D)

House 

D’s 1,2,8,13,14,17

R’s 3,4,5,6,7,9,10,11,12,15,16,18

Rhode Island 

President Clinton

House

D’s 1,2

South Carolina 

President Trump

Senator Tim Scott (R)

House

D’s 6

R’ 1,2,3,4,5,7

South Dakota

President Trump

Senator John Thune (R)

Tennessee

President Trump

House 

D’s 5,9

R’s 1,2,3,4,6,7,8

Texas

President Trump

House

D’s 9,15,16,18,20,23,28,29,30,33,34,35

R’s 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10,11,12,13,14,17,19,21,22,24,25,26,27,31,32,36

Utah,

President Trump

House 

R’s 1,2,3,4

Vermont

President Clinton

Senator Pat Leahy (D)

House

D’s AL

Virginia

President Clinton

House

D’s 3,4,8,10,11

R’s 1,2,5,6,7,9,

Washington

President Clinton

Senator Patty Murray (D)

House

D’s 1,2,6,7,9,10

R’ 3,4,5,8 

West Virginia

President Trump

House

R’s 1,2,3

Wisconsin

President Clinton 

Senator Russ Feingold  (D)

House

D’s 2,3,4

R’s 1,5,6,7, 8

Wyoming

President Trump 

House

R AL