Our First Look at the Senate

        This is our first foray down the ballot.  As with all things, it helps to remember history. To start, having the top of the ticket win in a state is extremely valuable in winning that state’s Senate race and that becomes truer with each election cycle. In 2012, only six of 33 races had a Senate race that went the opposite way of the top of ticket and there were unique stories behind each of them. A winning party at the top of the ticket provides the same advantage as a home field in sports. 

Another piece of history to remember is that the Senate class of 2010 rode a Republican wave to pick up Democratic seats in places such as Illinois, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. This year provides the Democrats with their first shot at this class. The landslide was large enough that no Red State Democrats are left. Democrats will only really be defending two seats as the rest are in Democratic strongholds. Democrats can put a possible 12 Republican seats into a competitive position, although the last four are something of a stretch. 

All of this seems to be good news for the Democrats’ chances of taking back the Senate. Let’s take a look at the 14 races we think will be competitive and an early prediction for each. 

Democratic Held Seats 

Likely Democratic 

Colorado: Democrat Michael Bennet v. TBD 

Sen. Michael Bennet survived the 2010 wave year. Colorado is trending demographically in the Democrats’ favor. Donald Trump is a terrible top of the ticket candidate for the state and the Republicans have as many as four candidates vying for the nomination, none of whom seem particularly intimidating. Still, Colorado tends to be a swing state and an incumbent Democratic senator lost in 2014 so a Republican victory can’t be ruled out. 

Lean Democratic 

Nevada: Democrat Catherine Cortez- Masto v. Republican Joe Heck 

Harry Reid handpicked a very qualified candidate in Catherine Cortez-Masto who was the state’s Attorney General. That, plus Trump at the top of the ticket, should make this a slam- dunk for the Democrats. But Republican Congressman Joe Heck has strong political skills and Nevada was the only state in 2012 where a Republican won the Senate seat while Obama took the state. 

Republican Held Seats 

Lean Democratic 

Illinois: Democrat Tammy Duckworth v. Republican Mark Kirk. 

Everyone may like Mark Kirk, but it isn’t going to matter. Illinois in a presidential year is an exceptionally Blue place. Kirk would be required to play error-free ball to even have a chance and it is not that hard to find an error or two. Tammy Duckworth is a good candidate with a compelling story. It is a tough, tough state for Rs regardless. 

Wisconsin: Democrat Russell Feingold v. Republican Ron Johnson 

This is as good an example of buyers’ remorse as one could hope to find. Ron Johnson was the Business Guy who rode Tea Party anger to victory over then-Democratic Sen. Russell Feingold in one of the bleakest races of 2010. In Johnson’s six years in the Senate, however, he has done nothing to stand out, and acted no differently than if he was a Republican in a safe state. The polling has shown Feingold consistently ahead, not to mention Wisconsin was Trump’s weakest spot during the primaries. Incumbents in swing states don’t fall easily but Johnson seems far and away the most likely to tumble. 

Tossup 

New Hampshire: Democratic Maggie Hassan v. Republican Kelly Ayotte. 

This is a race between two relatively popular politicians who are about to become much less so as $20 million in ads overwhelm the tiny state. This race was always going to be incredibly close and it is still likely to be, but Kelly Ayotte has wandered into two big problems: Donald Trump and her Supreme Court obstructionism. Both stands make her seem partisan and the partisanship is swinging the other way in New Hampshire, particularly in the wake of Trump. It is a tossup with a slight lean to the quite popular Gov. Hassan. 

Pennsylvania: Democrat Katie McGinty v. Republican Pat Toomey 

Pat Toomey is a right-winger who has done a very good job of building a more moderate profile to become relatively popular in his state. In more normal years, he would be a very tough out, but in this year, his luck may have run out. D.C. Democrats got whom they wanted in the Democratic nominee, Katie McGinty who is the sitting Democratic governor’s former chief of staff.  Although she may not be the most natural politician, she has solid experience and is backed by an ascendant Democratic party in Pennsylvania. Toomey might not be able to do as well in the Philly suburbs as he did in a much more Republican year in 2010. 

Florida: Primary v. Primary 

Both sides are awaiting the outcome of primaries to decide their candidates. If the Democrats get their man in Congressman Patrick Murphy, their chances of winning will be excellent, especially with Trump’s Miami-Dade problem affecting the entire ticket. Congressman Alan Grayson’s big money and big mouth pose a credible threat to Murphy’s chances. Most of the Republican opponents could be fairly easy pickings, but the toughest challenger, Congressman David Jolly, may make it through the primary. Races in Florida are incredibly close, yet they can tip quite quickly. Murphy could move the race to Lean D. We will revisit after the primary. 

Ohio: Democrat Ted Strickland v. Republican Rob Portman 

This race will be decided within two points. In 2010, Ted Strickland lost his job as governor by about two points. Rob Portman is probably the most popular of the Republicans running for re-election. It is going to be a barnburner. Portman, who supported gay marriage after his son came out, has problems with his right flank. Trump also presents a problem for him. Ted Strickland is 72-years old, which is on the gray side to start a senate career. It will be close all the way, particularly because the state is a must-have for Trump in general. 

Lean Republican 

North Carolina: Democrat Deborah Ross v. Republican Richard Burr 

This race is entirely about the national dynamics. For a two-term senator, Richard Burr is little known. Deborah Ross, a former member of the state house, isn’t very well known either. If the Democrats win at the top of the ticket, and the governor is taken down by the problems related to HB2, then this one just might tip over too.  

Arizona: Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick v. Republican John McCain  

This is the really interesting one. To some extent, John McCain is a spent force in American politics, yet his long-time record still makes him formidable. Donald Trump is a very dangerous force for him because Hispanic voters, who makeup a larger percentage of the state’s electorate, might be inclined to punish all Republicans. Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick is a solid candidate who has survived Republican wave years. It is tough to take down legends but this is the kind of year that does it. 

Likely Republican 

Indiana: Democratic Baron Hill v. Republican Todd Young  

 Republicans dodged the right-wing bullet by nominating Congressman Todd Young.  Former Congressman Baron Hill is the Democrat. Under normal circumstances, this would be a very hard road for Democrats, but this year, who knows? Hill is a good candidate. 

Missouri: Democrat Jason Kander v. Republican Roy Blunt 

We have always believed Roy Blunt to be an unpleasant fellow and current Secretary of State Jason Kander is a quality candidate. Missouri is moving away from Democrats, though they did retain the Senate race in 2012. Clinton can win here and there is nothing special about Blunt to save him. 

Iowa: Democrat TBD v. Republican Chuck Grassley 

Chuck Grassley is a living legend. Before this cycle, he was thought to be utterly untouchable.  But two things changed: Trump and the Supreme Court blockade. Grassley is the leading person stopping a vote on the high court nominee and his numbers are dropping as a result. Republicans’ core Christian base here rejected Trump in the caucus and that could be a big problem. The Democrats have to work through their primary with the outcome affecting the November race. Still, this is the hardest reach. 

On the Radar 

Georgia: Democrat Jim Barksdale v. Republican Johnny Isakson 

Isakson’s probably safe, particularly because the winner needs 50% to avoid a runoff. But Georgia now could be in play at the presidential level with Clinton possibly wining. (The latest poll shows the Trump-Clinton matchup basically a tie.) A Clinton win could push Barksdale, an investment manager, across the line. It is a very hard seat but it is possible.