Thursday, May 5, 2016

Can Trump keep winning without primaries to win?

       Once the primaries began, Donald Trump had a huge advantage. On every primary night, except for two of consequence (Iowa and Wisconsin), Trump won at least something. Before this race was called yesterday, Trump had won 27 states out of the 41 states that had voted. That meant Trump got to boast regularly about all his winning.
His polls results worked the same way. Whenever his controversial early statements threatened to engulf his campaign, he could pull out a new poll that had him ahead. No one cared about what Trump said as long as he was still winning. Winning beget winning. This feedback loop helped him tremendously in the primaries. 
But now Trump faces a deficit in the polls and he has no possibility of a real win until the actual election. Sure there is one outlier poll that shows him ahead and there might be one or two more to come. And sure Trump is the master of generating attention. But how is he going to be winning and, more importantly, seen as winning? Without being able to fall back on big wins and big poll leads, what is his strategy? This will be an interesting to watch as we move forward.

Tomorrow we will take our first look at the Senate. 
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The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.

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Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.