We now need to pivot away from just
primary predictions. The general election has begun. We can’t possible get into
everything right now but we will begin with a simple point. Donald Trump
basically led in the polls nationally and in the relevant states from the
beginning of the race to its end. There were questions about what would happen
when the field condensed. There were questions about how long the lead would
last etc. What did not happen was Trump’s
actual performance deviating from the polls’ predictions. Of late, he has done
somewhat better than the polls, but not by much. The pundits made a big mistake
in discounting his lead early on. We shouldn’t, however, overcompensate for
those early mistakes by believing now that Trump will do better than the polls that
show him trailing Hillary Clinton. Ignoring the polls that showed Trump ahead
was wrong; that is not a good reason to ignore ones showing him behind. A point
to bear in mind: Clinton leads in the polls by considerably more the Obama did
at this point in either 2008 or 2012.
The Scorecard
The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.
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About Me
Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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