Can Donald Trump get a majority of the delegates? The likely answer is no.

Whether Donald Trump obtains a majority of the delegates to the Republican convention, not just more than anyone else, is the major question looming over the race at this point. While we believe that it is possible for Trump to win out right, it is much more difficult than is being reported. In fact, the chance of Trump getting a majority may be as low as a 10%. This is direct contrast with what is being reported by the New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/05/upshot/if-super-tuesday-voting-pattern-continues-donald-trump-will-reach-delegate-target.html?ref=topics

Let’s be clear. Donald Trump is a heavy, heavy favorite to get the most votes. He is also a big favorite to have the most delegates. But Trump needs another 848 delegates to get to the 1237 he needs for a pure majority. Given the varied delegate allocation methods in the 36 contests left to be decided, that is an exceptionally difficult challenge. It is possible that a narrative of Trump strength and inevitability may emerge and push the other candidates to give up after March 15^th. But failing that, Trump almost certainly can’t get to 1237 before June 7^th, the last day of voting on the R side, and likely will never be able to get there.

Follow along as we present the math that leads us to conclude Trump won’t win a majority of delegates. Four main ways are left for awarding delegates. Understanding these methods makes Trump’s challenge manifest.

Method I: Mixed (486 delegates in 17 states and territories)

Trump gets: 149

 After which Trump still needs: 699

 Seventeen states and territories, with a total of 486 total delegates, use what we are calling the Mixed method, meaning that they award delegates in both proportional and other funky ways that will limit Trump’s delegate intake. Some of the rules are just plain weird and happen outside of the view of the press or without the benefit of a primary. The delegates from Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota in particular are awarded it seems without the benefit of a straw poll. The assumption is Trump will receive 30 delegates out of these states but could easily be goose egged. 

The 538 boys see him netting 161 delegates out of this group. We see him only getting 149, primarily because we have no faith in the Trump campaign in Washington, D.C. or in the remaining territories. 538 has him winning 13 delegates in those places, while we see him getting four. Regardless something on the order of 337 delegates go to not Trump from the mixed group.

Method II: Winner Take Most  (135 delegates in 2 states)

Trump gets: 115

After which Trump needs: 584

Two states, Mississippi and New York with 135 delegates, use a winner-take-most method, similar to what we saw in Georgia and Alabama. The at large delegates are awarded proportionally while two of the each CDs’ three delegates go to the winner, and one goes to the second-place finisher, unless a candidate gets to 50% statewide or in a district, then the district delegates all go to the winner. Mississippi tomorrow is likely to be worth around 20 delegates to Trump. So the question is: will it be a two-man race by New York on April 19^th?  That would enable Trump to reach the 50% threshold and get all 95 delegates. If it’s still a three-person race, Trump might be held under 50% and is less likely to get all of New York.

 True Winner Take All  (416 delegates in 9 states)

Trump gets: 416

After which Trump needs: 168

A true winner take all state is exactly like an ordinary election: get one more vote and you win all the delegates. The winner-take-all states on the Republican side are Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Delaware, Nebraska, West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, and New Jersey. Although Trump should in theory be favored in all of these states, only three vote in the next month. A clean sweep of those three, Florida, Arizona, and Ohio, while valuable, only accounts for 223 delegates, 54% of the winner-take-all delegates. Put another way: the combination of Delaware and New Jersey is worth as much as Ohio; Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota combined are almost as valuable as Florida. 

To end up on 1237, Trump can ill-afford to lose any of these states and certainly not any of the four largest, Florida, Ohio, Arizona, and New Jersey. Although the conventional wisdom is that it is John Kasich and Marco Rubio who need to win their home states, Trump  likely needs both states to to get to 1237.

Near Winner Take All  (529 delegates in 8 States)

Trump needs: 168

Trump gets: ???

Obviously if Donald Trump sweeps all nine winner-take-all states his path to the majority is much easier, but he is not home free. He would still need 168 delegates in these eight states. They award their district delegates to the winner in each district and their at large delegates to the winner statewide (with one exception). Most of these states give each congressional district three delegates. Missouri awards five delegates per districts, at the expense of statewide delegates that number just 12.

 It is possible to win a state without winning a majority of the districts, but that is not very likely on the Republican side. Someone other than the statewide winner has won some Congressional Districts, but so far they have been relatively small in number: Arkansas 2^nd, Georgia 5^th and 6^th, Oklahoma 5^th, Louisiana 4^th and Virginia 7^th, 8^th, 10^th and 11^th. This split can hurt Trump’s delegate accumulation, both because he could lose CDs in states he might be likely to win (Indiana) and because he could by lose additional CDs on top of losing states that are a bigger challenge for him, such as California. 

The winner-take-most states in chronological order are: Illinois, Missouri, Wisconsin, Connecticut (proportional at state level unless a candidate reaches 50% then it’s winner take all), Maryland, Pennsylvania (with wrinkles), Indiana, and California. 

 Missouri and Illinois present very good opportunities for Trump to rack up serious delegate accumulations. He needs only to win in what seems almost certain to be a four-person field on March 15^th. After that, Trump either took a body blow in losing Florida or Ohio, or he’ll face longer odds in some districts going forward because he won’t have the advantages of a four –way race as either Rubio and/or Kasich has dropped out.

  Even assuming an unlikely clean sweep in Illinois and Missouri, that would only net 121 for Trump. He still needs 47 delegates. Indiana looks decent for him but the other five states, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Maryland, and California, are exactly the kind of places where Trump could be stopped. Trump might be favored to get 47 delegates out of these six states but not by very much. (There is a Pennsylvania hitch that could make things very interesting but we will discuss that later.)

Conclusion

Look at all the things that have to go right for Trump to get to 1237. He needs to win all nine winner-take-all states and every delegate in Missouri, Illinois, and New York, as well as get the 20 he would be expecting in Mississippi. He would then still need 47 delegates out of Indiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Maryland, and California. A statewide win in any of these six would likely do it; otherwise, Trump would need the right selection of 16 Congressional districts to get this done. If anything goes wrong along the way (Nebraska, South Dakota and Montana are looking iffy for Trump in light of the Kansas results for Cruz.)

There is also much more time than people assume. Everything could be going right for Trump all the way up until June 7^th, but he still needs to win delegates on the last day of voting to win. Based on this calculation and assuming no California delegates, he needs the 107 delegates from winner-take-all states that vote on June 7^th to get 1237. If he wants to avoid going all the way to June 7^th he needs to run the table including stellar performances in the other near-winner-take-all states.

While Trump had a good night on Super Tuesday and did okay on Saturday, he did not do nearly well enough to suggest he is in fact on track to reach 1237. It should also be clear that given that Trump has a clear edge and everyone else is relatively far behind, no one else has a path to majority either. The odds of no one getting to 1237 are simply off the charts.