Monday, March 7, 2016

Republican Preview: Idaho, Hawaii, Michigan, Mississippi

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Idaho
Delegate Allocation:       Cruz 14                 Trump 11             Rubio 7

Hawaii
Total:                                     Cruz 6                    Trump 5               Rubio 5 
At large:                              Cruz 4                    Trump 3               Rubio 3
CD 1:                                      Cruz 1                    Trump 1               Rubio 1
CD 2:                                      Cruz 1                    Trump 1               Rubio 1
3 RNC  *(It's not clear whether the delegates reserved for the Republican National Committee members are pledged to a candidate or, like Democratic super delegates, they are free to do as the please.)

Michigan
Delegate allocation:        Trump 23             Cruz 18                 Kasich 18 

Mississippi
Total:                                     Trump 22             Cruz 18 
Delegation Allocation:
At Large 15-13                   Trump 15             Cruz 13
CD 1:                                      Trump 2               Cruz 1
CD:                                         Trump 2               Cruz 1
CD 3:                                      Trump 2               Cruz 1
CD 4:                                      Trump 1               Cruz 2

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The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.

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Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.

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