A Bridge to the General Election

We here at Multi-Candidate Field Dynamics are still very excited about all of the contests to come in this wild primary process. But because we are approaching end game in the primaries, we thought we would pivot today to a quick look at what the general election might look like. This will touch on the basics, not be a comprehensive evaluation.

The Electoral College: Don’t overweight Ohio and Florida

                Ohio and Florida are essential for Republicans to win in 2016, but not for Democrats. A lot of attention is paid to those states and rightly so. They have lots of Electoral College votes, and neither party has a lock on them. It is often assumed that the winner in Ohio or Florida will win the election. Had the Democrats added either of these states in 2000 or 2004 they would have prevailed. But since 2008, the electoral map has changed, and Ohio and Florida are no longer essential for Democrats.  

If you give Democrats the states they have won in every election since 1992 that amounts to 242 electoral votes.  A few of those states, such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin may be contested, but a Democrat who dropped these states has likely already lost. In 2016 Democrats also are favored to varying degrees in the three states that they won in either 2004 or 2008 -- Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico. This puts the Democrats at 257 electoral votes, or 13 shy of winning.  These 13 votes are most attainable from Nevada and Colorado, since Obama’s margins over his rivals in these states were greater than in any others not included in the 257. Indeed, under the current electoral map Colorado and Nevada would put the Democratic nominee at 272 electoral votes (in the 2008 map these states had more votes).  If Democrats struggle with white voters and find themselves in danger of losing Iowa or New Hampshire, they could still prevail by carrying Virginia, a state where Democrats are 6-1 in top-statewide races since 2005.  That’s why Florida and Ohio function much more as must win states for Republicans than as ultimate bellwethers. This was missed by the chattering classes throughout much of 2012 because Ohio looked like a state where Obama had a better than average lead. But in the end Ohio returned to form with a pro-Obama margin slimmer than margins in states constituting the 272 electoral-vote total described above.  This is also why the Karl Rove Ohio freak-out was so ridiculous because by that point Ohio was no longer looking decisive despite its place in the pre-election prognostication.

Quick Look at Demographics

                We understand there’s far more to electoral analysis than demographic groups.  Nor are we even close to the stage when it’s time to predict group vote totals.  But for rough analysis it’s useful to divide the electorate into five major voting groups: African-Americans, Other-Non Whites, White Evangelical Christians, White Christians (non-Evangelical), and White non-Christians.   Three of these groups, African-Americans, Other Non-Whites, and White Non-Christians strongly favor Democrats.   The other two groups favor Republicans. White Evangelicals Christians do so very strongly. White Christians (non-Evangelical) also prefer the G.O.P. by large although not overwhelming margins.    Very roughly, in this election Democratic groups should make up about 40% of the electorate and Republican groups should be about 60%, However Democrats will almost certainly run stronger in their 40% than Republicans will with their 60%. When reviewing polls and match ups, it’s crucial to make sure that the electorate is properly weighted in these demographic categories to be valid. While it is mostly forgotten, the final RCP average between Romney and Obama showed the race nearly tied. But in the end Obama won by nearly 4%. Similar errors will repeat unless the demographics are correct and mis-weighting may help explain why state polling was more correct than national polling. It’s easier to peg the demographics correctly in state elections.  Since these demographics in the electorate roughly mirror the demographics of the country having an electorate that looks wildly different from these benchmark is just not reasonable.

Conclusion:

We will dig in more as we formally get nominees or as we now have slower days in the primary, but it’s a good place to start with these quick points on the states and groups Democrats need to succeed.