We at MCFD try and stay in our own lane of analysis. We have made a few critiques here and
there, but mostly we simply offer our perspective. But sometimes we see something that is just
ridiculous, and we need to comment. Sam Wang’s comments provide such an occasion.
Wang suggests that
Governor Kasich should now limit his efforts to competing only in states that
Wang asserts choose delegates through a proportional system. If you have been following MCFD so far, you understand the contours
of the Trump/Cruz/Kasich battle better than most and thus already understand
why Kasich cannot and will not follow Wang’s advice. The important point is
that, no matter what the math shows about getting to 1237, if you are John
Kasich and you want to be the Republican nominee you understand that a
candidate who has won only his home state and enters the convention with under
200 delegates is simply not a serious contender. No matter what the game theory
says, John Kasich, needs to win more states. Fortunately for him there are some
he could win. California looms large as a place that Kasich could excel; so does
Pennsylvania. By competing in these states he does raise the odds of Trump success,
but he also raises his own odds. Doing what Wang suggests would turn John
Kasich instantly into an irrelevance. For Kasich to succeed, he really needs a
big splash in Wisconsin to provide a jolt of good news before these other
states. Leaving all winner-take-all states to Cruz is functionally the same as
dropping out. Wang’s piece also has some math wrong. Some states that Wang calls “proportional"
have winner-take-all at the 50% threshold or are winner take all by
Congressional district. Connecticut is one such state. And were that not bad enough, Connecticut is
also a state where in winner-take-all districts Kasich rather than Cruz might
be more likely to beat Trump. So Wang’s facts and his analysis don’t add up.
In short, Wang’s advice is flawed across the board. There are some places where
Kasich may have a strategic interest in retreat but not even close to
everywhere that Wang names.
The Scorecard
The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.
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About Me
Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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