It seems as if, without new Republicans results, the political media have resigned themselves to the idea that Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee for President. We wrote last week that if the Republican Party wanted to wrest the nomination from Trump, it probably could, using the rules and some degree of skullduggery. We were clear this would be possible even if Trump got to 1237 delegates, the number he needs to win the nomination outright. But, as we also said before, the road to 1237 is far more treacherous for Trump than is generally perceived.
We don’t think he can get there. Indeed, we believe the Wisconsin primary next Tuesday we will likely close the door on Trump getting a majority of delegates. Regardless, for Trump to reach 1237, he needs to win every delegate in New York, New Jersey, West Virginia, Connecticut, Maryland, Pennsylvania statewide, Delaware, Wisconsin, Indiana, get a decent proportion of the remaining proportional states of Rhode Island, New Mexico, Washington state and Oregon and he would still need to win 19 Congressional districts in California’s primary. This would put him at exactly 1237 delegates.
It is true that the winner-take-all states of Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota could in theory could help him get over the threshold if he isn’t able to do it the other way, but those states are all hard lifts for Trump.
One of the problems with the 538 bench marks per state for getting Trump to 1237 was that it assumed Trump was likely to get delegates out of caucuses in Wyoming, North Dakota and Colorado that have been held but didn’t announce their results or hold the delegates to those results. The more information that is available, however, the less likely it looks that Trump got the delegates out of those states that 538 said he needed.
The fact Pennsylvania’s entire compliment of district level delegates are technically unpledged, meaning that the delegates don’t have to follow the election results, would not be a problem for a candidate other than Trump. For Trump that could be a disaster. The party, as defined by its apparatchiks, seems to be moving farther from, not closer toward, acceptance of his nomination.
Trump could reach this number but the initial read from the polling in Wisconsin and California is that the outlook is nowhere near certain. In fact, more things have to go right for Trump to get there than have to go right for his opponents to stop him.
In the end, his opponents may not have the will to stop Trump if he has the most delegates and the most votes, but they seem near certain to have the way.
The Scorecard
The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.
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About Me
Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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