It is the Friday before another key election day and finally it has dawned on the Republicans that that to beat Donald Trump they actually have to figure out the rules by which they elect delegates and encourage their voters to think similarly.
The bottom line is that either Donald Trump or Marco Rubio is going to win Florida and either Donald Trump or John Kasich is going to win Ohio. These are facts. In theory the path forward is clear. If you want to stop Trump, vote for Rubio in Florida and Kasich in Ohio. But it is nowhere near that simple. A continued four-person race allows Trump to win more delegates in winner-take-all and near winner-take-all states later in the calendar. With the exception of a handful of remaining states, Trump would seem to be a heavy favorite in four-way races.
Thus the death of Rubio is essential for the anti-Trump forces. At the same time, they would also love to take Florida away from Trump, and Rubio seems to be the only one that could do it (though in reality it seems too late). But if Rubio wins Florida, he won’t do the Republican establishment the favor of dropping out.
The problem for Not-Trump is that Rubio’s continuing presence in the race puts Ohio, as well as delegates in Missouri and Illinois that vote the same day, in jeopardy. The odds of wining Florida seem too small to be worth risking those other states and so there is pressure on Rubio to quit now.
But Rubio seemingly believes he will come back and win Florida. And he believes he is the strongest candidate. He hasn’t withdrawn and almost certainly won’t before Tuesday’s voting. Still, he wants to quiet the storm. So his team told his supporters to vote for Kasich in Ohio. Leaving aside whether that is the correct anti-Trump move, it is clearly the correct Rubio move. If both Rubio and Kasich win their home states, it is impossible to pressure one to quit without saying the other should quit too. Rubio also can benefit from this ploy, ideally by picking up Kasich supporters in Florida. That might enable Rubio to make up the gap with Trump. (The fact that so many ballots have already been cast in early voting makes this harder than is generally assumed.)
The Kasich camp, however, knows that the continued presence of Rubio is a virus that can only weaken their efforts, and thus they responded: `We don’t need your help in Ohio and by the way, you are going to lose Florida.’ When one team advocates strategic voting and the other team mocks those efforts, the person advocating for what might be the best course still looks bad. That’s an important lesson if Kasich wins Ohio and the race winnows to three candidates. It’s also important if Rubio pulls off Florida and the three non-Trumps are stuck playing this game in a string of winner-take-all states.
What is amazing is that there is something that favors Trump in just about every scenario. Almost every possible outcome makes it more likely that Trump will get the most votes and the most delegates, declare victory and dare the Republican Party to test his resolve. That is likely to happen, even if his goal of getting to the majority of 1237 delegates was dashed by a bad day on March 15th.
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