For the sake of argument and because of the
push back we received after calling the Democratic race, we decided to do the
math on how Sanders “could” win.
Obviously, we do not think this can happen, and the delegate allocations
we will post for Tuesday’s states will give a clear indication of why we think
Sanders is lost. However someone rightly
pointed out that it was unfair to call for 538 to update its delegate
benchmarks, unless we also did so. What
follows then is a chart showing what Sanders would need in every single
delegate allocation that remains. Secretary Clinton leads by 225. This shows
Sanders winning the remaining contests by 226 delegates for a 1 pledged
delegate win. We cannot envision a winning
scenario for Sanders actually transpiring, but this is what it would like if it
did.
Bucket
|
Sanders
|
Clinton
|
OH AL
|
16
|
15
|
OH PLEO
|
10
|
9
|
OH 1
|
2
|
2
|
OH 2
|
2
|
2
|
OH 3
|
5
|
7
|
OH 4
|
2
|
2
|
OH 5
|
2
|
2
|
OH 6
|
2
|
2
|
OH 7
|
2
|
2
|
OH 8
|
2
|
2
|
OH 9
|
4
|
4
|
OH 10
|
2
|
2
|
OH 11
|
7
|
10
|
OH 12
|
2
|
2
|
OH 13
|
4
|
4
|
OH14
|
2
|
2
|
OH15
|
2
|
2
|
OH 16
|
2
|
2
|
FL AL
|
23
|
23
|
FL PLEO
|
14
|
14
|
FL 1
|
2
|
1
|
FL 2
|
3
|
3
|
FL 3
|
2
|
2
|
FL 4
|
2
|
2
|
FL 5
|
3
|
3
|
FL 6
|
3
|
2
|
FL 7
|
3
|
2
|
FL 8
|
3
|
2
|
FL 9
|
3
|
2
|
FL 10
|
3
|
2
|
FL 11
|
3
|
2
|
FL 12
|
3
|
2
|
FL 13
|
3
|
3
|
FL 14
|
3
|
3
|
FL 15
|
3
|
2
|
FL 16
|
3
|
3
|
FL 17
|
2
|
2
|
FL 18
|
3
|
3
|
FL 19
|
2
|
2
|
FL 20
|
3
|
4
|
FL 21
|
3
|
4
|
FL 22
|
3
|
3
|
FL 23
|
3
|
3
|
FL 24
|
3
|
5
|
FL 25
|
2
|
1
|
FL 26
|
2
|
2
|
FL 27
|
2
|
2
|
IL AL
|
18
|
16
|
IL PLEO
|
11
|
9
|
IL 1
|
3
|
6
|
IL 2
|
3
|
5
|
IL 3
|
3
|
2
|
IL 4
|
3
|
2
|
IL 5
|
3
|
3
|
IL 6
|
3
|
2
|
IL 7
|
3
|
6
|
IL 8
|
2
|
2
|
IL 9
|
4
|
3
|
IL 10
|
3
|
2
|
IL 11
|
3
|
2
|
IL 12
|
4
|
2
|
IL 13
|
3
|
2
|
IL 14
|
2
|
2
|
IL 15
|
2
|
2
|
IL 16
|
3
|
2
|
IL 17
|
4
|
2
|
IL 18
|
2
|
2
|
MO AL
|
9
|
6
|
MO PLEO
|
5
|
4
|
MO 1
|
4
|
6
|
MO 2
|
3
|
3
|
MO 3
|
3
|
2
|
MO 4
|
3
|
2
|
MO 5
|
3
|
4
|
MO 6
|
3
|
2
|
MO 7
|
2
|
2
|
MO 8
|
3
|
2
|
NC AL
|
11
|
12
|
NC PLEO
|
7
|
7
|
NC 1
|
3
|
5
|
NC 2
|
2
|
2
|
NC 3
|
2
|
2
|
NC 4
|
4
|
4
|
NC 5
|
2
|
3
|
NC 6
|
2
|
3
|
NC 7
|
2
|
2
|
NC 8
|
2
|
2
|
NC 9
|
3
|
2
|
NC 10
|
3
|
2
|
NC 11
|
2
|
2
|
NC 12
|
3
|
5
|
NC 13
|
3
|
3
|
AZ AL
|
8
|
8
|
AZ PLEO
|
5
|
4
|
AZ 1
|
3
|
3
|
AZ 2
|
4
|
4
|
AZ 3
|
3
|
2
|
AZ 4
|
2
|
2
|
AZ 5
|
3
|
2
|
AZ 6
|
3
|
3
|
AZ 7
|
3
|
2
|
AZ 8
|
3
|
2
|
AZ 9
|
3
|
3
|
ID AL
|
4
|
1
|
ID PLEO
|
2
|
1
|
ID 1
|
6
|
2
|
ID 2
|
5
|
2
|
UT AL
|
5
|
2
|
UT PLEO
|
3
|
1
|
UT 1
|
4
|
1
|
UT 2
|
4
|
2
|
UT 3
|
4
|
1
|
UT 4
|
4
|
2
|
AK AL
|
3
|
1
|
AK PLEO
|
1
|
1
|
AK 1
|
7
|
3
|
HI AL
|
4
|
2
|
HI PLEO
|
2
|
1
|
HI 1
|
6
|
2
|
HI 2
|
6
|
2
|
WA AL
|
16
|
6
|
WA PLEO
|
9
|
3
|
WA 1
|
5
|
2
|
WA 2
|
5
|
2
|
WA 3
|
4
|
2
|
WA 4
|
3
|
1
|
WA 5
|
4
|
1
|
WA 6
|
5
|
2
|
WA 7
|
9
|
3
|
WA 8
|
4
|
2
|
WA 9
|
5
|
2
|
WA 10
|
4
|
2
|
WI AL
|
11
|
8
|
WI PLEO
|
6
|
4
|
WI 1
|
4
|
2
|
WI 2
|
8
|
3
|
WI 3
|
4
|
3
|
WI 4
|
4
|
6
|
WI 5
|
3
|
2
|
WI 6
|
4
|
2
|
WI 7
|
4
|
2
|
WI 8
|
4
|
2
|
WY AL
|
3
|
1
|
WY PLEO
|
1
|
1
|
WY 1
|
6
|
2
|
NY AL
|
27
|
27
|
NY PLEO
|
15
|
15
|
NY 1
|
3
|
3
|
NY 2
|
3
|
3
|
NY 3
|
3
|
4
|
NY 4
|
3
|
3
|
NY 5
|
2
|
4
|
NY 6
|
2
|
4
|
NY 7
|
3
|
4
|
NY 8
|
2
|
4
|
NY 9
|
2
|
4
|
NY 10
|
3
|
3
|
NY 11
|
3
|
2
|
NY 12
|
3
|
3
|
NY 13
|
2
|
4
|
NY 14
|
3
|
4
|
NY 15
|
2
|
4
|
NY 16
|
3
|
3
|
NY 17
|
3
|
3
|
NY 18
|
3
|
3
|
NY 19
|
3
|
2
|
NY 20
|
4
|
3
|
NY 21
|
4
|
2
|
NY 22
|
3
|
2
|
NY 23
|
3
|
2
|
NY 24
|
4
|
2
|
NY 25
|
3
|
3
|
NY 26
|
4
|
3
|
NY 27
|
4
|
2
|
CT AL
|
7
|
5
|
CT Pleo
|
4
|
3
|
CT 1
|
5
|
3
|
CT 2
|
4
|
3
|
CT 3
|
4
|
3
|
CT 4
|
4
|
3
|
CT 5
|
4
|
3
|
DE AL
|
2
|
3
|
DE PLEO
|
1
|
1
|
DE Wimington
|
1
|
1
|
DE New Castle
|
4
|
4
|
DE Kent
|
1
|
1
|
DE Sussex
|
1
|
1
|
MD AL
|
10
|
11
|
MD PLEO
|
5
|
5
|
MD 1
|
3
|
3
|
MD 2
|
3
|
4
|
MD 3
|
4
|
4
|
MD 4
|
4
|
6
|
MD 5
|
4
|
5
|
MD 6
|
3
|
4
|
MD 7
|
4
|
5
|
MD 8
|
4
|
4
|
PA AL
|
21
|
21
|
PA PLEO
|
10
|
10
|
PA 1
|
4
|
6
|
PA 2
|
6
|
8
|
PA 3
|
4
|
2
|
PA 4
|
4
|
2
|
PA 5
|
3
|
2
|
PA 6
|
4
|
3
|
PA 7
|
4
|
4
|
PA 8
|
4
|
3
|
PA 9
|
3
|
2
|
PA 10
|
3
|
2
|
PA 11
|
3
|
3
|
PA 12
|
3
|
3
|
PA 13
|
4
|
5
|
PA 14
|
4
|
5
|
PA 15
|
3
|
3
|
PA 16
|
3
|
2
|
PA 17
|
4
|
3
|
PA 18
|
4
|
2
|
RI AL
|
4
|
2
|
RI PLEO
|
2
|
1
|
RI 1
|
5
|
3
|
RI 2
|
4
|
3
|
IN AL
|
9
|
9
|
IN PLEO
|
5
|
4
|
IN 1
|
4
|
4
|
IN 2
|
4
|
2
|
IN 3
|
3
|
2
|
IN 4
|
3
|
2
|
IN 5
|
4
|
3
|
IN 6
|
3
|
2
|
IN 7
|
3
|
5
|
IN 8
|
4
|
2
|
IN 9
|
4
|
2
|
WV AL
|
4
|
2
|
WV PLEO
|
2
|
1
|
WV 1
|
5
|
2
|
WV 2
|
4
|
3
|
WV 3
|
4
|
2
|
KY AL
|
7
|
5
|
KY PLEO
|
4
|
2
|
KY 1
|
3
|
2
|
KY 2
|
4
|
2
|
KY 3
|
4
|
5
|
KY 4
|
4
|
2
|
KY 5
|
2
|
2
|
KY 6
|
4
|
3
|
OR AL
|
9
|
4
|
OR PLEO
|
5
|
2
|
OR 1
|
6
|
3
|
OR 2a
|
2
|
1
|
Or 2b
|
2
|
1
|
OR 3
|
8
|
3
|
OR 4
|
6
|
2
|
OR 5
|
5
|
2
|
CA AL
|
57
|
48
|
CA PLEO
|
29
|
24
|
CA 1
|
3
|
3
|
CA 2
|
5
|
3
|
CA 3
|
3
|
3
|
CD 4
|
3
|
3
|
CA 5
|
4
|
3
|
CA 6
|
4
|
2
|
CA 7
|
3
|
3
|
CA 8
|
2
|
3
|
CA 9
|
4
|
2
|
CA 10
|
2
|
3
|
CA 11
|
4
|
3
|
CA 12
|
6
|
3
|
CA 13
|
6
|
2
|
CA 14
|
4
|
3
|
CA 15
|
4
|
3
|
CA 16
|
2
|
3
|
CA 17
|
4
|
2
|
CA 18
|
5
|
3
|
CA 19
|
4
|
2
|
CA 20
|
4
|
2
|
CA 21
|
2
|
2
|
CA 22
|
2
|
3
|
CA 23
|
2
|
3
|
CA 24
|
4
|
2
|
CA 25
|
3
|
2
|
CA 26
|
3
|
3
|
CA 27
|
3
|
3
|
CA 28
|
4
|
3
|
CA 29
|
2
|
3
|
CA 30
|
3
|
4
|
CA 31
|
2
|
3
|
CA 32
|
3
|
3
|
CA 33
|
4
|
3
|
CA 34
|
2
|
3
|
CA 35
|
2
|
3
|
CA 36
|
3
|
2
|
CA 37
|
3
|
4
|
CA 38
|
3
|
3
|
CA 39
|
3
|
3
|
CA 40
|
2
|
3
|
CA 41
|
3
|
2
|
CA 42
|
2
|
3
|
CA 43
|
2
|
4
|
CA 44
|
3
|
3
|
CA 45
|
3
|
3
|
CA 46
|
2
|
3
|
CA 47
|
3
|
3
|
CA 48
|
3
|
3
|
CA 49
|
3
|
3
|
CA 50
|
3
|
2
|
CA 51
|
2
|
3
|
CA 52
|
3
|
3
|
CA 53
|
3
|
4
|
MT AL
|
3
|
1
|
MT PLEO
|
1
|
1
|
MT West
|
5
|
3
|
MT East
|
4
|
3
|
ND AL
|
3
|
1
|
PLEO
|
1
|
1
|
ND 1
|
8
|
4
|
SD AL
|
3
|
1
|
SD PLEO
|
1
|
1
|
SD 1
|
9
|
5
|
NM AL
|
3
|
4
|
NM PLEO
|
2
|
2
|
NM 1
|
4
|
4
|
NM 2
|
3
|
4
|
NM 3
|
4
|
4
|
NJ AL
|
14
|
14
|
NJ PLEO
|
7
|
7
|
NJ DD 1
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 2
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 3
|
2
|
3
|
NJ DD 4
|
2
|
3
|
NJ DD 5
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 6
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 7
|
1
|
2
|
NJ DD 8
|
2
|
3
|
NJ DD 9
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 10
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 11
|
2
|
3
|
NJ DD 12
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 13
|
1
|
2
|
NJ DD 14
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 15
|
2
|
3
|
NJ DD 16
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 17
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 18
|
2
|
3
|
NJ DD 19
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 20
|
2
|
2
|
DC AL
|
2
|
3
|
DC MD 1
|
3
|
4
|
DC MD 2
|
3
|
3
|
DC PLEo
|
1
|
1
|
VI ST
Thomas
|
2
|
2
|
VI ST Croix
|
1
|
2
|
Guam
|
4
|
3
|
DA
|
9
|
4
|
PR AL
|
6
|
7
|
PR PLEO
|
3
|
4
|
PR 1
|
3
|
5
|
PR 2
|
3
|
3
|
PR 3
|
2
|
2
|
PR 4
|
2
|
2
|
PR 5
|
2
|
2
|
PR 6
|
2
|
2
|
PR 7
|
2
|
2
|
PR 8
|
3
|
3
|
1475
|
1249
|
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