Democratic Preview: Michigan and Mississippi

Michigan

Odds of Win:   Clinton 95%   Sanders 5%
Margin:            Clinton 56%   Sanders 44%
Delegate total: Clinton 73       Sanders 57
Delegate Allocation:
At Large: 16-12 Clinton
PLEO: 10-7 Clinton
CD 1: 3-3 Clinton
CD 2: 3-2 Clinton
CD 3: 3-2 Clinton
CD 4: 3-2 Sanders
CD 5: 4-3 Clinton
CD 6: 3-2 Sanders
CD 7: 3-2 Sanders
CD 8: 3-2 Clinton
CD 9: 4-2 Clinton
CD 10: 3-2 Sanders
CD 11: 3-3 Tie
CD 12: 4-3 Clinton
CD 13: 6-3 Clinton
CD 14: 6-3 Clinton

Mississippi

Delegate total: 32-4 Clinton
Delegate Allocation:
At Large: 8-1 Clinton
PLEO: 4-1 Clinton
CD 1: 4-1 Clinton
CD 2: 9-0 Clinton
CD 3: 5-0 Clinton
CD 4: 3-1 Clinton

Caveat: Sanders is in danger of falling below the 15% threshold in the entire state. Sanders received 19% of the vote in Alabama, which is 26.7% African American. Mississippi is 37.5 percent African American. Given Clinton's performance among African Americans that might suggest Sanders will do even worse in Mississippi than he did Alabama. The Alabama primary electorate was already so black, however, that while there might be a somewhat higher percentage in Mississippi it probably won't be that significant. Still, Louisiana's Saturday results shows that Sanders' standing among African Americans hasn't improved. So Sanders is at least flirting with not meeting Mississippi's threshold and thus walking away without statewide delegates.