The first week of the end game has
been surprisingly quiet. But the themes going forward are clear, which is what
makes this race interesting. We have seen a very small number of establishment figures
side with Ted Cruz, most notably Mitt Romney.
There have been rumors of overtures from more U.S. Senators and evidence
those overtures are being rebuffed. What is going on?
The reality is that Republican
primary voters are livid at Republicans in Washington, so it’s hard for anyone,
particularly Cruz, to accept establishment support. If Obama is pure evil,
which is a widely held view in certain circles, than the Republican establishment
response has been massively inadequate. Cruz himself stoked anger at the
Republicans in Washington with his shut down of the government and his
condemnations of his fellow Congressmen. The Cruz campaign recognized this anger
from the very beginning of the race. Yet, it’s been Trump, not Cruz, who has best
expressed this anger and most benefited
from it.
It appears Republicans are looking
for an arsonist as their nominee, someone who will burn to the ground the House
of the Republican Establishment for its inability to stand up to Obama. The
problem for Cruz is that while that establishment does not have very many votes,
it does have access to money and the potential to game the rules at the
convention.
The voters that Cruz needs to edge
past Trump want to see Washington burn. Adding endorsements from the people who
live in the house makes it less likely people will believe he is willing to
burn it down. Trump has absolutely no risk on this front. Despite Cruz’s
attempts, Trump’s brand is so clearly anti-establishment he does not face that
risk.
Cruz needs to make nice with the
very people voters hate and against whom his brand is built. This is his challenge.
The Scorecard
The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.
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About Me
Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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