We will
begin with a warning. From here on, we see 10 states and territories being
favorable to Sanders and 10 states and territories being favorable to Clinton.
We see another seven states as being tossups. The next four weeks features six Sanders
states, one toss-up state, and only one likely Hillary Clinton state. Thus
Sanders is likely to have an exceptional run of states until New York on April
19.
It starts tomorrow with caucuses in Utah
and Idaho that will be balanced a bit with Arizona’s primary. This coming
Saturday there likely will be no balance. Hawaii is a tossup, but Washington state
and Alaska look likely to go for Sanders, Washington by a huge margin.
Sanders could easily end up netting 50 or so delegates this
week. However this week also marks close-to-the-end of the overwhelming white
caucuses. (The final caucuses are Wyoming on April 9th and North
Dakota on June 7th.) This run should surprise no one and should not
lead to the belief that Sanders is coming back. His remaining states only have
393 delegates and he trails by 321.
In the end Clinton will likely win the pledged delegate count
by something like 500, but her current lead could drop by as much as 100 delegates
until her states start voting again at the end of April.
This is what Tuesday looks like.
Total:
Sanders 68, Clinton 63
Arizona
Total:
Clinton 43, Sanders 32
|
Allocation
|
Clinton
|
Sanders
|
|
AZ AL
|
9
|
7
|
|
AZ PLEO
|
5
|
4
|
|
AZ 1
|
3
|
3
|
|
AZ 2
|
5
|
3
|
|
AZ 3
|
3
|
2
|
|
AZ 4
|
2
|
2
|
|
AZ 5
|
3
|
2
|
|
AZ 6
|
3
|
3
|
|
AZ 7
|
3
|
2
|
|
AZ 8
|
3
|
2
|
|
AZ 9
|
4
|
2
|
Idaho
Total:
Sanders 15, Clinton 8
|
Allocation
|
Sanders
|
Clinton
|
|
ID AL
|
3
|
2
|
|
PLEO
|
2
|
1
|
|
ID 1
|
5
|
3
|
|
ID 2
|
5
|
2
|
Utah
Total:
Sanders 21, Clinton 12
|
Allocation
|
Sanders
|
Clinton
|
|
UT AL
|
4
|
3
|
|
UT PLEO
|
3
|
1
|
|
UT 1
|
3
|
2
|
|
UT 2
|
4
|
2
|
|
UT 3
|
3
|
2
|
|
UT 4
|
4
|
2
|
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