Caucuses have been the most difficult contests in which to predict margin. Where we have been most wrong has been in underrating Senator Sanders in caucuses. We tried hard not to make the same mistake this time. One pattern that has emerged is that while Senator Sanders is doing remarkably well in caucuses, he still hasn’t done as well as Obama did in 2008, except in the Maine caucus. So in predicting Saturday’s caucuses in Alaska, Hawaii and Washington that where we decided to land--very close to Obama’s winning margin in 08, but not quite there.
One note: in Washington, district level allocations, not the statewide totals, set the statewide and PLEO delegates. We have Sanders wining district level delegates 47 to 20; if he does one delegate better at the district level, he nets two more statewide delegates.
Tomorrow is the last big day for caucuses. Only two remain after tomorrow.
Total: Sanders 97, Clinton 45
Alaska: Sanders 11, Clinton 5
Allocation
|
Sanders
|
Clinton
|
|||||||||||||||||
AK AL
|
3
|
1
|
|||||||||||||||||
AK PLEO
|
1
|
1
|
|||||||||||||||||
AK 1
|
7
|
3
|
|||||||||||||||||
Hawaii: Sanders 16, Clinton 9
|
|||||||||||||||||||
Washington: Sanders 70, Clinton 31
Allocation
|
Sanders
|
Clinton
|
WA AL
|
15
|
7
|
WA PL
|
8
|
4
|
WA 1
|
5
|
2
|
WA 2
|
5
|
2
|
WA 3
|
4
|
2
|
WA 4
|
3
|
1
|
WA 5
|
3
|
2
|
WA 6
|
5
|
2
|
WA 7
|
9
|
3
|
WA 8
|
4
|
2
|
WA 9
|
5
|
2
|
WA 10
|
4
|
2
|
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