Hillary Clinton won all five states, added at least 100, and probably more, delegates to her overall total. We will keep making delegate allocations but we won’t update the what-Sanders-needs chart because any attempt to make a case for Sanders winning would strain credibility.
Moving on. Last night was another great night for Donald Trump. He took four out of five states, knocked off Senator Rubio and looks exceptionally strong going forward.
At this point, it is worthwhile to revisit what we said about Trump as Iowa loomed. In particular, we had the pace of the race right.
“As everyone knows, the voting begins in Iowa on February 1st. We’ll turn to the stage of doom Silver identifies as Iowa/New Hampshire in a bit. But what people focus on less is that by March 15th, 31 states will have voted. This six-week window of voting will go by in a flash with very little time for buyer’s remorse. Silver’s last two stages of Doom, delegate accumulation and a pre-convention end game, simply may not happen as a clear win is possible before then. These stages won’t materialize if a candidate were to win say 25 of the 31 states. Speed can kill.”
So far Trump has won 20 contests. His closest rival,Ted Cruz, has won seven, the departed Senator Rubio won three and Governor Kasich has won one (and come in second only three times, all in New England states.) This is not the near complete sweep we envisioned and that is why the process continues. When all last night’s votes are counted, it appears Trump will end with between 680 and 700 delegates, though it will likely be closer to the top. That still puts him 500-plus delegates away from the 1237 he needs for the nomination. Of course if he keeps winning it should be relatively easy for Trump to get that number.
What we’ve learned so far is that the continuing presence of certain candidates in the race has only helped Trump. We saw that again last night. Given the exceptionally close contest yesterday in Missouri, Senator Cruz would very likely have beaten Trump there but for the presence of Rubio. North Carolina might also have fallen to Cruz and Illinois would have been far closer.
As we wrote about a few days ago, the problems of multi-candidate field dynamics and collective actions will continue to plague the Republican establishment. There are basically three battlefields left: one where Cruz stands the best chance against Trump; one where Kasich has the best chance; and one where both Cruz and Kasich have a chance. How the two Republicans choose to engage and on which field will matter a great deal.
Trump v. Cruz Turf (9 States, 318 delegates)
Cruz should run better than Kasich in these states and has a good shot at beating Trump in some of them. Trump should be a clear favorite in winner-take-all Arizona and West Virginia. Cruz would seem a mortal lock to win the Utah caucuses and he should be able to trigger the 50% winner-take all-threshold. Wyoming and Colorado held caucuses three weeks ago, but because they didn’t release the results, we’ll only be finding out the delegate counts next month. Expect a fair share of them to go to Cruz. North Dakota seems to be at the discretion of the state party and thus a wild card but likely not a Trump win. Winner-take-all Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota loom large. To stop Trump, Cruz needs to win all three. This is where multicandidate field dynamics can again play a large role. Will Kasich make a play for those states because he needs wins? If he plays for them and gets one win, and gives Trump the other two, did that help or hurt?Trump v. Kasich Turf (7 States, 318 delegates)
Kasich is playing catch up and frankly it will be a challenge for him to win any of the states that offer him his best shot. New Jersey, a winner-take-all state, looks like a lock for Trump. His native New York also seems like a lock. Because there is a 50% winner-take-all threshold per Congressional district and statewide, it is possible the Kasich/Cruz combination could hold Trump under 50% in some districts in New York and maybe statewide. Delaware is straight winner take all. Pennsylvania and Maryland are winner take all by Congressional district and for state at large delegates. Connecticut is winner-take-all statewide if a candidate reaches 50% of the vote; if no candidate does, then it’s winner take all by Congressional district and proportional at the statewide level. Cruz has incentives to play in certain districts in these three states. Because five of these seven states vote on the same, Cruz may try to kill off Kasich. He then can face off against Trump in California and Indiana. Keeping Trump from delegates here may not be as important for the goal of stopping Trump as finally turning this into a two-person race.Shared Territory (7 states and territories, 352 delegates)
The collective action problem is a nightmare for the Republicans in these states. Either Kasich or Cruz could win against Trump in these seven states. It would not be easy but it is possible. Trump’s roughly 40% ceiling in similar states such as Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri make him beatable in a two-person race in states such as Wisconsin and Indiana. But Wisconsin, which votes in three weeks, is likely to be a three-way race. In a three-person race, Trump’s ability to get between 36% and 40% could easily see him sweep the delegates. That turns what would otherwise be a meaningless battle for second-place delegates into a fierce fight between Kasich and Cruz to try to eliminate the other. Washington is another state where a two-person race could deprive Trump of a substantial number of delegates, but a three-person race doesn’t. Washington, which is not a particularly good state for Trump, has a 50% winner-take-all threshold at the district level. In a two-person race, another candidate could get over the threshold; in a three-person race the delegates are likely to split and Trump will come away with a decent haul.Conclusion
The choices left to the Republican Establishment are not good but at the same time the pressure remains on Donald Trump to keep winning. Were he to stop winning, all the talk about his being an inevitable nominee would be ridiculous. Even if one gave him all the delegates from his four best remaining states, Arizona, West Virginia, New York and New Jersey, and some of the proportional delegates he is likely to win in a few other states, Trump still needs at least 200 delegates to get a majority. There are lots of places for Trump to get delegates for sure, but there are also lots of places to deny them. It will take smart collective action, and that has been lacking during the entire primary process.The effort has been poorly targeted and the inner-selfishness of the candidates has never curtailed.After yesterday, Donald Trump will almost certainly enter the convention with the most votes cast in his favor. There is no doubt that if the Republicans are prepared to cheat (and there infinite ways to cheat), they can keep Trump from winning. But will they actually be willing to do that and risk alienating the 35% to 40% of the Republican Party who voted for Trump? We are still a long way from facing that possibility and we have Arizona and Utah in a week.
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