We know all the narrative excitement was on the D side in the wake of last night’s Michigan primary and we will get to the continuing battle between narrative and delegates tomorrow. But first we wanted to update the R side because it remains a much more interesting contest.
It appears Donald Trump yesterday added about 72 delegates to his total and exceeded our estimate by 12 delegates. (Some updating will be required with respect to Idaho because the rules there are so complicated it’s hard to figure out how they are being applied.)
This is obviously good news for Trump as he moves from needing 848 delegates to get a majority of the delegates to needing 776 now. He thus comes closer to getting that majority than we thought he would at this point. Still, Tuesday’s results point to difficulties ahead for Trump in reaching a majority. Donald Trump lost Idaho fairly decisively yesterday and, as a result of that loss, Trump would no longer appear to be favored in three other big Western states, Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota. Those states are winner take all and have a combined 92 delegates. Trump also was not able to sweep the Congressional districts in Michigan. This was irrelevant in Michigan where delegates are apportioned proportionally by the statewide vote. But this could be highly relevant next week in Missouri and Illinois where Congressional district wins matter.
If the weaknesses apparent in Trump’s wins in Idaho and Michigan come to pass, then they will likely outweigh the delegate gains he made toward a majority as a result of Tuesday’s wins. We will know a lot more Tuesday but for now Trump’s road to 1237 remains much harder than is generally thought. Trump wins in Ohio and Florida likely remain a perquisite to getting a majority, not just an option.
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