Last night’s
Republican result was exactly what we were expecting. It also has gone a long
way toward illuminating the path forward.
John Kasich had a really bad night after a very bad week. He
won Ohio and then ended up with exceptionally little to show for it. Voters in
Arizona and Utah seemed to figure out in short order that Kasich was not really
in the race, giving him 10% and 17% respectively. After Donald Trump’s very
large win in Arizona it also is clear that Trump has about a 99% chance to
enter the convention with the most votes (he leads Cruz by over two million
votes) and a better than 95% chance of doing so with the most delegates (he
leads by 289 delegates).
It is very much an
open question of whether he actually will reach the 1237 delegates that he
needs. We will dive deeper into this later but the reality is that by any
objective measure at the end of nominating cycle it will be clear that Trump has
won the primary process.
As we explained previously, there are many ways to rig this
process against the actual winner and, if one is willing, the magic majority
can be snapped away almost instantly. It is important to remember that in 2012
Ron Paul had some success in taking over delegations even in states where he
was destroyed in the primary process. Similar efforts, with the full support of
party brass, could be successful.
The problem with such a strategy is not that it would not
work. The problem is that it might alienate the 12 to 15 million people who
voted for Trump and the 30 or so million who chose to participate in the Republican
primary process. The message that their votes did not end up counting has the
potential to be exceptionally damaging to the party.
Whether that is more damaging than nominating Trump remains
to be seen. But that is the core dilemma that plagues the Republican Party and
will do so for at least the next two months. Another thing that emerged last
night is that it will almost certainly take until June 7th for Trump
to get close to 1237. We will dig into the fight for 1237 soon but it is not
the all-important contest people believe it to be. Taking the nomination away from
Trump might be easier optically if Trump does not get to 1237, but it might not
be relevant mechanically.
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