Tuesday’s
primary and caucuses are more like an appetizer than a main course. Arizona
seems very likely to go for Donald Trump, particularly because such a large
percentage of the vote has been early. That means there is likely to be a
decent number of Marco Rubio votes in the mix that otherwise might have gone to
the other two surviving candidates. Since Arizona is winner take all, Trump’s
lead seems banked. This will net him 58 delegates. The margin is what will be
interesting to see. If Arizona looks like
North Carolina, which was a close Trump win, this could be a warning sign going
forward.
Utah is a winner-take-all state at 50% that
Ted Cruz looks exceptionally likely to clear. This will net him 40 delegates.
American Samoa also votes tomorrow with six delegates being awarded.
The outcomes
in these states are not much in doubt, but they could provide information about
the contours of the race going forward. If Ted Cruz can keep the results close
in Arizona that will be telling. If Donald Trump gets over 50% that would be an
indicator of what might happen in the future. And Arizona might indicate how
much of third wheel Kasich is. It could prove very hard to be a third wheel
particularly as the Wisconsin primary looms.
Arizona
Trump: 58
delegates
Utah
Cruz: 40
Delegates
American Samoa
Cruz 3,
Trump 2, Kasich 1
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