Indiana or Bust for the Republicans.

                Donald Trump is doubtless on the verge of locking up this nomination.  While a victory in Indiana would not produce a clinching number for him, it would completely sap the strength from the Republican effort to stop him.   After a Cruz failure in the Hoosier state, it’s hard to believe Republicans would be willing to pay the millions upon millions of dollars it would take to make California competitive. John Kasich’s continued existence has made a last minute rally against Trump all the more difficult by creating an unrealistic vehicle for avoiding the bitter pill of Ted Cruz.  Of course, Kasich has absolutely zero path to anything. Even now, despite the supposed deal, John Kasich’s waffling about who his supporters should vote for in Indiana is making the challenge there for Cruz even harder.

Donald Trump has already locked up most delegates and most votes by a considerable margin.  Yet without Indiana, Trump would need to win California and take 29 of its 53 districts to wrap things up, assuming things proceed mostly as projected:  Trump sweeps delegates in Pennsylvania, earns reasonable splits in the three remaining proportional states, triumphs in winner take all West Virginia and New Jersey, but loses in South Dakota, Montana and Nebraska.  Current California polling puts Trump’s target within reach, and momentum from Indiana should carry him through the Golden State. . However without Indiana and particularly after a Cruz victory there, John Kasich’s total will naturally fall to well under 10%, as his chances will disappear.  This will put Cruz well in contention to deprive Trump of a left coast triumph.

Moreover, if Cruz can win Indiana, all of the small delegate victories he has been winning will come strikingly into play.  The trends in Indiana are all over the map and frankly somewhat crazed. The polling is utterly manic, and John Kasich is still polling better than he did in Wisconsin where in the end he collapsed as a result of consolidation behind Cruz.  Indiana is absolutely huge, and we really have no good way of know of what is happening in Indiana.  With an Indiana loss we go back to crazed mass scramble.  With an Indiana win, Trump basically has it.  There is no hard evidence leaning in either direction.  Hold on to your hats. 

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Will More Votes be Cast on the Republican or Democratic Side during the Primaries?

If you listen to cable news, one would hear over and over again that Republicans are voting in record numbers and Democrats basically cannot find a polling booth. This is both true of the Republicans and doesn’t mean as much as it might seem.

The reason: both sides’ starting points for comparisons are off. Republicans have never seen a primary as competitive as this one, whereas the Democrats in 2008 had an all-time record breaker between two candidates who ran exceptionally close throughout the primary season. So it is not surprising Rs would be outvoting Ds -- their race is more exciting.

Still, the gap is not as large as people have been led to believe. At this point in the calendar, Democrats have cast roughly 22 million ballots while Republicans have cast roughly 25.5 million ballots. It seems as if Republicans are on track to attract many more voters. But Democratic strongholds of California and New Jersey have yet to weigh in. Republicans will counter with a few states favorable to them.

It therefore seems likely that even after California, Republicans will get more votes than Democrats but it is not a given and the margin will almost certainly close to within two million votes. Hillary Clinton may also break the record for all time votes cast in the primaries.

 This should not be taken as predictive of the general election but it is interesting to track as the primary season winds down. 

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Trump versus Clinton: A First Look

The Republican primary process is not over. It is still possible that the forces arrayed against Donald Trump will simply not let it happen but the facts, as they are currently coming in, suggest strongly that Trump will be the nominee of the Republican Party. Thus it is time to take an early look at the race against Hillary Clinton.

We started about a month ago http://mcfd2016.blogspot.com/2016/03/a-bridge-to-general-election.html.  At that time, we looked at what numbers the candidates would need in particular demographic groups in a typical close presidential race, such as Obama v. Romney in 2008 or Bush v. Kerry in 2004.

At least initially, however, we are not looking a typical race. Trump is weaker with Hispanics and educated women than the average Republican would be. Although Trump has been winning Republican women he has been doing less well with women than men. Hispanics are an absolute nightmare for Trump; he is only getting about half of Romney’s already way too weak support. Overall this has led to a Clinton lead of 8.5% in the RCP average. This lead is bigger than Obama’s substantial 2008 victory and its about as big a lead as one can possibly expect in these polarized times.

Despite all the talk, there are no groups with whom Trump out performs Romney in current polling match ups.  This may change but for now the weaknesses are far greater than any possible strengths.

 Doing well with Republicans does not mean doing well with the country. This is where the race starts.

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No doubt: Trump’s on the verge of winning the nomination

Donald Trump absolutely shattered the goals we had set for his performance yesterday.   In Connecticut, the goal was 50% and he got 58%. In Delaware, 50% was the goal and 61% was the result.  In Rhode Island, the goal was 50% and he got 64%. In Pennsylvania, the goal was 45%, and he got 57%. In Maryland, the goal was 43%, and he took 54%. In short, he killed. He also took almost all of the delegates that were in the up-for-grabs category and is now about 250 delegates away from clinching.

 As a result, we need to go back and clean up what we said before. We had suggested that it would be very difficult for Trump to get to the majority of 1237 delegates. It still will not be easy, but given last night’s overwhelming results, we are nowhere near as sure that he won’t get there. In fact, we now believe he is on pace to reach 1237. The Indiana primary on Tuesday, however, could still do some serious damage to that effort.

Perhaps that is why Ted Cruz chose to make today’s dramatic announcement of a Vice Presidential pick in Carly Fiorina. This seems like a good idea. It gets Cruz back in the news, which he desperately needed, and it reminds people of a flaw in Trump. Who could forget Trump asking in one of the early debates how anyone could vote for “that face,” referring to Carly Fiorina? It may all be too little too late. Given how certain the media is sounding that Trump will win everything, however, a new loss in Indiana might be worse for Trump than it would be in the absence of that hype.

There also remains the question of whether Cruz has enough “stolen” delegates so that he could still steal the nomination even in the absence of the votes and whether such a move would possibly be tolerated.

Indiana looks very good for Trump now. Sometimes things break in a direction and there is no turning back.

Quickly, on the Democratic side, we predicted Clinton to win in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania, which she did. We picked her to win Rhode Island too, which she didn’t. Still, we got close in the overall delegate count. We thought Clinton would win 214 delegates and Sanders would win 170 delegates. In the end, Clinton got 218 delegates to Sanders’ 166.  

We’ll say more about the general election later this week, as well as ideas about the Republican side in Indiana, which might tell us all we need to know.  

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Republican Primary Preview: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island

Tomorrow will tell us a lot. Is Donald Trump the candidate of 40% of Republicans, a very sizable plurality but not really within striking distance of a majority? Or is Donald Trump gaining enough strength to put the race well and truly away?

The do-or-die state for the effort to stop Trump is Indiana next week. Cruz and Kasich have already signed an alliance to give Cruz votes in the Hoosier state. Yet, we’ll probably have a good indication tomorrow whether a serious effort to derail Trump will succeed. Trump is exceptionally likely to win all five states tomorrow: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.

Yet, there’s still a question whether those wins will be because of a continued spilt among Republicans or because Trump has secured a healthy plurality. To judge that we’ll need to see whether he’s able to make substantial gains over his past performance in demographically similar states. Trump got 49% in Massachusetts. So to be gaining, he needs to break 50% in demographically similar Connecticut and Rhode Island. In Pennsylvania, 45% would seem to be the number that would signal a break through. In Maryland, 43% would seem to be what he needs. In Delaware, 50% seems to be the baseline though it’s hard to get a read because there are very few “like” states. 

When it comes to delegates, Trump seems certain to gain at least 88 delegates while another 20 are up for grabs. Another 10 delegates likely won’t go to Trump because of Rhode Island’s proportionality rules. Pennsylvania will contribute 17 of the 88 delegates Trump will surely win. That’s for winning the state. Pennsylvania’s remaining 54 delegates are the largest and most complicated prize of the night. They come from the three delegates available in each of Pennsylvania’s 18 Congressional districts, but they are unbound so there is no easy way to predict which delegate candidates will win and to whom they will pledged. The stronger Trump performs in the state, the more pressure the delegates will feel to be with him.

 If Trump beats these goals in all five states, Indiana and perhaps the entire defensive line against Trump will crumble. He will be the nominee. But if he doesn’t capture all the states by the needed margin on Tuesday, then chaos will likely result. It is very close. Here is what we see as the allocations for each state. 

Connecticut

Total: Trump 19 Kasich 9

Delegate Allocation	Trump	Kasich	Cruz
At Large	7	6	0
CT 1	3	0	0
CT 2	3	0	0
CT 3	3	0	0
CT 4	0	3	0
CT 5	3	0	0

Delaware

Total: Trump 16  Others  0

Maryland

Total: Trump 32 Kasich 6

Delegate Allocation	Trump	Kasich	Cruz
At Large	13	0	0
MD 1	3	0	0
MD 2	3	0	0
MD 3	3	0	0
MD 4	0	3	0
MD 5	3	0	0
MD 6	3	0	0
MD 7	3	0	0
MD 8	0	3	0

Pennsylvania

Total: Trump 17 Unbound 54

Trump Unbound At Large 17 0 District Level 0 54
Rhode Island: Total: Trump 9 Kasich 6 Cruz 4 Delegate Allocation Trump Kasich Cruz At Large 7 4 2 RI 1 1 1 1 RI 2 1 1 1

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Democratic Preview: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island

April 26^th is looking very much like March 15^th on the Democratic side. Both dates boast five state contests and many other parallels as well. Like Florida on March 15, Maryland seems to be Clinton’s best state tomorrow. She won’t quite win by her Florida like margin but she will rack up her biggest win. Like North Carolina, Delaware has been overlooked. No one thinks it will be competitive but it could produce less of a delegate haul for Clinton than might be expected. Pennsylvania is Ohio. If the national race was truly close Pennsylvania would be too. But Pennsylvania looks like about a 10-point for Clinton, win making it very similar to Ohio. Connecticut is like Illinois. Just like Chicago’s unpopular mayor dragged down the level of expected Democratic machine support, Connecticut’s unpopular Democratic governor could hamper Clinton’s efforts. It looks quite close with the slightest of edges to Clinton. Rhode Island looks like a replay of Missouri as a toss up state. Clinton swept on March 15^th and she could again. But the slightest headwind and she could win only three out of five. We think she sweeps but are not 100% sold.  Of course, none of it changes the overall delegate math. Clinton will add to her already formidable lead.

Overall Total: Clinton 214 Sanders 170

Connecticut

Total: Clinton 28 Sanders 27

Delegate Allocation	Clinton	Sanders
CT AL	6	6
CT PLEO	4	3
CT 1	4	4
CT 2	3	4
CT 3	4	3
CT 4	4	3
CT 5	3	4

Delaware

Total: Clinton 11 Sanders 10

Delegate Allocation	Clinton	Sanders
DE AL	3	2
DE PLEO	1	1
Willimngton	1	1
New Castle	4	4
Kent	1	1
Sussex	1	1

Maryland

Total: Clinton 59 Sanders 36

Delegate allocation	Clinton	Sanders
MD AL	13	8
MD PLEO	6	4
MD 1	3	3
MD 2	4	3
MD 3	5	3
MD 4	7	3
MD 5	6	3
MD 6	4	3
MD 7	6	3
MD 8	5	3

Pennsylvania

Total: Clinton 103 Sanders 86

Delegate Allocation	Clinton	Sanders
PA AL	24	18
PA PLEO	11	9
PA 1	6	4
PA 2	9	5
PA 3	3	3
PA 4	3	3
PA 5	2	3
PA 6	4	3
PA 7	4	4
PA 8	4	3
PA 9	2	3
PA 10	3	2
PA 11	3	3
PA 12	3	3
PA 13	5	4
PA 14	5	4
PA 15	3	3
PA 16	2	3
PA 17	4	3
PA 18	3	3

Rhode Island

Total: Clinton 13 Sanders 11

Delegate Allocation	Clinton	Sanders
RI AL	3	3
RI PLEO	2	1
RI 1	4	4
RI 2	4	3

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How Sanders plans to end his campaign

New York seems to have gotten the Sanders campaign to at least acknowledge the reality of its situation. If you just read the headline, you will likely miss the signs but if you read the subtext, they are very much there. For over a month, the Sanders campaign has said that part of its plan would be to persuade super delegates to switch to its side. After Hillary Clinton extended her delegate lead to 237 pledged delegates with her New York win, Sanders seemed to back off his play for super delegates. The Sanders campaign sent an email very tellingly saying it intends to win the pledged delegates. A direct quote from the e-mail: “We still have a path to the nomination, and our plan is to win the pledged delegates in this primary.”

Of course, while it is fine to make such a statement, the goal is not in fact achievable. New York illustrates that reality. It is the second largest delegate prize on the Democratic side. Hillary Clinton won it by 16 points, and she netted 31 delegates. To makeup a 237-delegates gap, Sanders would need more than seven-and-a-half New York-sized wins in the remaining states to catch up. The polling from the states that vote this week show just how difficult the challenge is. While upsets in Rhode Island and Connecticut cannot be ruled out, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware look even more out of reach than Illinois. Regardless, wins don’t do any good if they are not New York-size; Sanders has had exactly two New York-sized wins in primaries, New Hampshire and Vermont.

It probably will take only a week to make the math go from ridiculous to beyond ridiculous. Yet, even that will not end the race. For the millions of people who voted for Sanders and the millions more who want to, it is perfectly reasonable for him to run until the end of voting. But at that point pretending that super delegates will save his campaign won’t be seen as reasonable by anyone. Super delegates are overwhelmingly for Clinton. With the pledged delegates and total votes echoing those sentiments, there is nothing to even hint that the super delegates will flip. (Only one of more than 400 super delegates who have pledged to Clinton have switched to Sanders.) There are only 714 unpledged delegates. Being exceptionally generous to Sanders and assuming he can close within 200 pledged delegates would still require that Sanders get 64% of super delegates.

There will be no reasonable way to contest the convention even if the Sanders campaign insists it wants to. The Sanders campaign will run through all the states because there is no real reason not to. But all the talk about paths to victory should be silenced. It can be hard to hear but there is nothing open about this convention.

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Donald Trump or Chaos

After Donald Trump’s victory in New York last night the math has become clear. Donald Trump is now the only G.O.P. candidate who can mathematically get to 1237 by winning pledged delegates. More importantly his leads in the coming primaries next week look relatively solid as Cruz and Kasich continue to split the vote. This creates a straight forward dynamic.

Donald Trump is within range of getting to 1237, but it is still an exceptionally hard slog. As we saw last weekend, Ted Cruz is succeeding at winning the race for delegates even when they are “technically” for Trump. So while 1237 may seem like an important marker, it can be ignored by unloyal delegates who can relatively easily manipulate the rules to stop Trump. Donald Trump is almost a mortal lock for more delegates and more votes than anyone else and by not an inconsiderable margin. The reality for the Republican Party is clear. The Party can nominate Donald Trump possibly with some degree of ease or they can fight on for 3 months with the goal of overturning what seems like the will of the voters. Indiana and California can matter, but the core reality of this seems locked. There seems no escaping the difficult choice between accepting Trump or bringing on the chaos of six weeks with no voting and endless wrangling. Denying Trump’s claim will seem to be somewhat of an effort to disenfranchise the actual voters. Donald Trump is not an appealing choice, but he may seem like a better choice than chaos. However it is also important to note that it is ultimately the 2472 actual individual people who are delegates who will matter in all of this. It could be possible that party leaders want something desperately, but these 2472 people don’t. It is within their power to change everything. The idea that a process which ends with something like 20,000,000 votes cast will come down to the collective will of just 2472 people will seem to many if not most as some kind of anarchy. Trump or Chaos, no other choice.

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