Will More Votes be Cast on the Republican or Democratic Side during the Primaries?

If you listen to cable news, one would hear over and over again that Republicans are voting in record numbers and Democrats basically cannot find a polling booth. This is both true of the Republicans and doesn’t mean as much as it might seem.

The reason: both sides’ starting points for comparisons are off. Republicans have never seen a primary as competitive as this one, whereas the Democrats in 2008 had an all-time record breaker between two candidates who ran exceptionally close throughout the primary season. So it is not surprising Rs would be outvoting Ds -- their race is more exciting.

Still, the gap is not as large as people have been led to believe. At this point in the calendar, Democrats have cast roughly 22 million ballots while Republicans have cast roughly 25.5 million ballots. It seems as if Republicans are on track to attract many more voters. But Democratic strongholds of California and New Jersey have yet to weigh in. Republicans will counter with a few states favorable to them.

It therefore seems likely that even after California, Republicans will get more votes than Democrats but it is not a given and the margin will almost certainly close to within two million votes. Hillary Clinton may also break the record for all time votes cast in the primaries.

 This should not be taken as predictive of the general election but it is interesting to track as the primary season winds down.