Monday, April 18, 2016

New York Preview

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            The end game of the primary process has begun as only seven weeks of voting remain on the Republican side and eight on the Democratic side. New York is in many ways the last chance for a surprise that could throw off how we think about the race. Our current thinking is not to expect one.
Donald Trump looks nearly certain to win and very likely to break 50%. Whether he has a good or great night will depend on how many of New York Congressional districts he takes with over half the votes. Overall he seems like a lock for at least a good night.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton also looks primed for a good day; a 10-plus point win seems very likely. Such a win would cement her lead in pledged delegates. 
As always, full delegate allocations follow.
New York Democrats 
Total: Clinton 142 Sanders 105
Clinton
Sanders
NY AL
31
23
NYPLEO
17
13
NY 1
3
3
NY 2
4
2
NY 3
4
3
NY 4
4
2
NY 5
4
2
NY 6
4
2
NY 7
4
3
NY 8
4
2
NY 9
4
2
NY 10
3
3
NY 11
3
2
NY 12
4
2
NY 13
4
2
NY 14
4
3
NY 15
4
2
NY 16
4
2
NY 17
4
2
NY 18
3
3
NY 19
2
3
NY 20
4
3
NY 21
3
3
NY 22
2
3
NY 23
2
3
NY 24
3
3
NY 25
3
3
NY 26
4
3
NY 27
3
3









New York Republicans
Total: Trump 84 Kasich 10 Cruz 1


Trump
Kasich
Cruz
NY AL
14
0
0
NY 1
3
0
0
NY 2
3
0
0
NY 3
3
0
0
NY 4
3
0
0
NY 5
3
0
0
NY 6
3
0
0
NY 7
2
1
0
NY 8
3
0
0
NY 9
3
0
0
NY 10
2
1
0
NY 11
3
0
0
NY 12
2
1
0
NY 13
2
1
0
NY 14
3
0
0
NY 15
2
1
0
NY 16
3
0
0
NY 17
3
0
0
NY 18
2
1
0
NY 19 
2
1
0
NY 20
2
1
0
NY 21
2
1
0
NY 22
2
0
1
NY 23
3
0
0
NY 24
2
1
0
NY 25
3
0
0
NY 26
3
0
0
NY 27
3
0
0



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The Scorecard

The Scorecard

The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.

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Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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