Last night was certainly exciting and we learned a lot about
the race going forward. The first thing we learned is that Donald Trump is not
invincible. This was clearly his worst loss of the election cycle. He had
greater losses in individual states but those came on the same day as victories
in other states. With the exception of Iowa, yesterday marked Trump’s first
real stand alone defeat. (That happened in District of Columbia and Puerto Rico
too but those contests were largely overlooked.)
We also are seeing that when the field shrinks Trump is
vulnerable. With that said, yesterday also showed that Trump is not finished.
He got 35% of the vote. He won two congressional districts and thus six
delegates. Other states on the calendar, particularly New York, look very good
for him. So his ability to have the most delegates and the most votes at the
convention seems safe even after last night, but his path to 1237 looks rockier
than ever. New York on April 19 and five states on April 26th states
will tell us a lot.
Last night also saw the continued shrinking of John Kasich;
he took only 14% of the total vote. It is a very difficult challenge to be the
third guy in a three-man race, which Kasich has been, running third or worse in
almost every contest. This is particularly true when the candidate has one win
in 35 contests. Kasich could in theory pose a stronger challenge to Trump than
Cruz in the next two set of contests, New York in two weeks and Connecticut,
Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island a week after that. A poll or
two is showing that but those appeared before Wisconsin. By refusing to leave
the race, Kasich may end up helping Trump to win those states where Trump
should be stronger than he was in Wisconsin.
For Ted Cruz the question is how do you weather a bad string
of states in the Northeast that all vote this month or, can you in fact pull off
some stunners in these seemingly inhospitable places. In Wisconsin, Cruz could
face Kasich’s 14% and still win easily. But that Kasich number could cause far
greater problems in a Connecticut or Pennsylvania primary, particularly if it
creeps higher. Indiana on May 3rd presents an opportunity for Cruz, but
coming in with a losing streak might make things harder.
A cloud hangs
over this whole process -- Republican donors and office holders generally would
prefer for neither Trump nor Cruz to get the nomination. Thus it’s possible
that if Cruz does better and Trump does worse, there might be a slight move
toward helping Trump to make the process appear even more chaotic.
We will go
state-by-state and delegate-by-delegate within a day or two. The road ahead
will be long and likely bloody.
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