April 26th
is looking very much like March 15th on the Democratic side. Both
dates boast five state contests and many other parallels as well. Like Florida
on March 15, Maryland seems to be Clinton’s best state tomorrow. She won’t quite
win by her Florida like margin but she will rack up her biggest win. Like North
Carolina, Delaware has been overlooked. No one thinks it will be competitive
but it could produce less of a delegate haul for Clinton than might be
expected. Pennsylvania is Ohio. If the national race was truly close
Pennsylvania would be too. But Pennsylvania looks like about a 10-point for
Clinton, win making it very similar to Ohio. Connecticut is like Illinois. Just
like Chicago’s unpopular mayor dragged down the level of expected Democratic
machine support, Connecticut’s unpopular Democratic governor could hamper
Clinton’s efforts. It looks quite close with the slightest of edges to Clinton.
Rhode Island looks like a replay of Missouri as a toss up state. Clinton swept
on March 15th and she could again. But the slightest headwind and she
could win only three out of five. We think she sweeps but are not 100% sold. Of course, none of it changes the overall
delegate math. Clinton will add to her already formidable lead.
Overall Total: Clinton 214 Sanders 170
Connecticut
Total: Clinton 28 Sanders 27
|
Delegate Allocation
|
Clinton
|
Sanders
|
|
CT AL
|
6
|
6
|
|
CT PLEO
|
4
|
3
|
|
CT 1
|
4
|
4
|
|
CT 2
|
3
|
4
|
|
CT 3
|
4
|
3
|
|
CT 4
|
4
|
3
|
|
CT 5
|
3
|
4
|
Delaware
Total: Clinton 11 Sanders 10
|
Delegate Allocation
|
Clinton
|
Sanders
|
|
DE AL
|
3
|
2
|
|
DE PLEO
|
1
|
1
|
|
Willimngton
|
1
|
1
|
|
New Castle
|
4
|
4
|
|
Kent
|
1
|
1
|
|
Sussex
|
1
|
1
|
Maryland
Total: Clinton 59 Sanders 36
|
Delegate allocation
|
Clinton
|
Sanders
|
|
MD AL
|
13
|
8
|
|
MD PLEO
|
6
|
4
|
|
MD 1
|
3
|
3
|
|
MD 2
|
4
|
3
|
|
MD 3
|
5
|
3
|
|
MD 4
|
7
|
3
|
|
MD 5
|
6
|
3
|
|
MD 6
|
4
|
3
|
|
MD 7
|
6
|
3
|
|
MD 8
|
5
|
3
|
Pennsylvania
Total: Clinton 103 Sanders 86
|
Delegate Allocation
|
Clinton
|
Sanders
|
|
PA AL
|
24
|
18
|
|
PA PLEO
|
11
|
9
|
|
PA 1
|
6
|
4
|
|
PA 2
|
9
|
5
|
|
PA 3
|
3
|
3
|
|
PA 4
|
3
|
3
|
|
PA 5
|
2
|
3
|
|
PA 6
|
4
|
3
|
|
PA 7
|
4
|
4
|
|
PA 8
|
4
|
3
|
|
PA 9
|
2
|
3
|
|
PA 10
|
3
|
2
|
|
PA 11
|
3
|
3
|
|
PA 12
|
3
|
3
|
|
PA 13
|
5
|
4
|
|
PA 14
|
5
|
4
|
|
PA 15
|
3
|
3
|
|
PA 16
|
2
|
3
|
|
PA 17
|
4
|
3
|
|
PA 18
|
3
|
3
|
Rhode Island
Total: Clinton 13 Sanders 11
|
Delegate Allocation
|
Clinton
|
Sanders
|
|
RI AL
|
3
|
3
|
|
RI PLEO
|
2
|
1
|
|
RI 1
|
4
|
4
|
|
RI 2
|
4
|
3
|
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