Wyoming Democratic Preview ~ The Scorecard

Friday, April 8, 2016

Wyoming Democratic Preview

This is the last stateside caucus until June 7^th and the second to last caucus altogether. By now, you all know the drill. Bernie Sanders will win the caucus tomorrow in Wyoming barring something unforeseen. We will offer the slightest of caveats, not in terms of the winner but in terms of the margin of victory. Wyoming was one of Clinton’s best caucuses in 2008. Despite Sanders’ impressive results, he has outperformed Obama in only eight states (New Hampshire, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, Alaska and Washington). We are certain Wyoming will be the ninth.

But with so few delegates at stake (14), the margin of victory swings the delegate take quite a bit. We’re predicting Sanders will get 10 delegates to Clinton’s four. To go from winning 9-5 to 10-4 requires Sanders getting 68.75; 11-3 requires 75.1%; 12-2 requires 81.25%. 85% would net all 14 delegates. Because Clinton got 38% in 2008, even her dropping to our prediction of 25.9% would be far and away her biggest drop from 2008 to date (with the exception of Vermont). Sanders could get above the 10-4. We think not, but we have been burned by caucuses before.

Delegate Total: Sanders 10 Clinton 4

Delegate Allocation:	Sanders	Clinton
WY AL	3	1
WY PLEO	1	1
WY 1	6	2

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The Scorecard

The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.

The Scorecard

Friday, April 8, 2016