Indiana or Bust for the Republicans.

                Donald Trump is doubtless on the verge of locking up this nomination.  While a victory in Indiana would not produce a clinching number for him, it would completely sap the strength from the Republican effort to stop him.   After a Cruz failure in the Hoosier state, it’s hard to believe Republicans would be willing to pay the millions upon millions of dollars it would take to make California competitive. John Kasich’s continued existence has made a last minute rally against Trump all the more difficult by creating an unrealistic vehicle for avoiding the bitter pill of Ted Cruz.  Of course, Kasich has absolutely zero path to anything. Even now, despite the supposed deal, John Kasich’s waffling about who his supporters should vote for in Indiana is making the challenge there for Cruz even harder.

Donald Trump has already locked up most delegates and most votes by a considerable margin.  Yet without Indiana, Trump would need to win California and take 29 of its 53 districts to wrap things up, assuming things proceed mostly as projected:  Trump sweeps delegates in Pennsylvania, earns reasonable splits in the three remaining proportional states, triumphs in winner take all West Virginia and New Jersey, but loses in South Dakota, Montana and Nebraska.  Current California polling puts Trump’s target within reach, and momentum from Indiana should carry him through the Golden State. . However without Indiana and particularly after a Cruz victory there, John Kasich’s total will naturally fall to well under 10%, as his chances will disappear.  This will put Cruz well in contention to deprive Trump of a left coast triumph.

Moreover, if Cruz can win Indiana, all of the small delegate victories he has been winning will come strikingly into play.  The trends in Indiana are all over the map and frankly somewhat crazed. The polling is utterly manic, and John Kasich is still polling better than he did in Wisconsin where in the end he collapsed as a result of consolidation behind Cruz.  Indiana is absolutely huge, and we really have no good way of know of what is happening in Indiana.  With an Indiana loss we go back to crazed mass scramble.  With an Indiana win, Trump basically has it.  There is no hard evidence leaning in either direction.  Hold on to your hats.