Let’s start with biggest conclusion of all. The odds of any Republican candidate getting a majority of 1237 delegates are remote. It is not impossible but it is daunting. Here is what it would take for each campaign.
Donald Trump needs to win every delegate in New York, Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia and New Jersey, and a reasonable slice of the remaining proportional states of Rhode Island, Oregon, Washington,New Mexico. Even if Trump manages such domination, he’ll still need to win 13 districts in California. He also faces an additional problem in Pennsylvania. The state’s entire complement of district-level delegates are technically unpledged, which means they don’t have to follow the election results, and they may not if Trump is the district winner.
Ted Cruz needs to win a very large share in the remaining proportional states. He could get every delegate from every non-proportional state besides New York and still need about 30 delegates in New York. In short, mathematical elimination looms for him in New York.
John Kasich needs to win over 100% of the remaining delegates, which he obviously can’t. He already has been mathematically eliminated from getting to 1237. In all honesty, we no longer understand the strategy of the Kasich campaign. The Northeastern states that vote next are decent territory for him but no polling has him legitimately in shouting distance of Trump in any state. He sneaks into second place in some places. That voters are not voting for him seriously damages his convention argument that he would be the best vote getter. It makes more sense for the convention to pick someone who the voters have not rejected rather than someone they so clearly have. We don’t get it anymore.
This brings us back to our old friend multi-candidate field dynamics. Trump is now pretty consistently getting 40% of the vote. He has received 37% of the vote so far, including in states where the field was much larger. His national RCP polling average is 40.3%. Two recent polls in California averaged him at 39.5%. He was at 39% in a Pennsylvania poll and 41% in a Maryland poll. 40% is not good enough to win a two-person race.
But the problem for `not Trump’ remains the same as it has been. Consolidating the non-Trump vote behind a single candidate is required to beat him but the voters in the various states may not comply. They might refuse to vote for the only remaining alternative. The continued division might be enough to win Trump the next six states and those wins may be enough to overcome Trump’s math challenges
Plus, both Cruz and Kasich continue to pursue their own interests. For Kasich, the possibility of a string of second places finishes across the Northeast might be enough for him to try and prove in California that he is the better challenger to Trump. Cruz believes that merely keeping Trump under 1237 will be enough for him to win and he might well be right. A two-person race in California at the moment seems to strongly favor Cruz. Trump is at 40% in California and experiences shows that Trump’s results rarely beat his polls. That would give Cruz a good shot with Kasich weakens. Kasich is now taking about 20% in California and undecided is at about 10%. A whole month earlier on May 3rd, Indiana, which hasn’t been polled, also might present an opportunity for Cruz.
The race will continue to be wild. But the dynamics that have benefited Trump continue to do so. This puts his rivals in a no man’s land as they might have a way to take the nomination away from him, but the party might not have the will.
What follows is a prediction for the remaining states with each state’s total delegate number, and the form of the contest: winner take all (WTA;) winner take all by state and congressional district [WTASC); near winner take all with triggers (NWTAT); proportional (P); or mixed system (Mixed).
Donald Trump: 758 delegates
Ted Cruz: 499 delegates
John Kasich: 144 delegates
Trump States
New York: 95 delegates (NWTAT)
West Virginia: 34 delegates (WTA)
New Jersey: 51 delegates (WTA)
Lean Trump States (the three-way dynamic makes this lean stronger)
Connecticut: 28 delegates (NWTAT)
Delaware: 16 delegates (WTA)
Maryland: 38 delegates (WTAC)
Pennsylvania: 71 delegates (M)
Rhode Island: 19 delegates (P)
Toss Up States
Indiana: 57 delegates (WTASC)
California: 172 delegates (WTASC)
New Mexico: 24 delegates (P)
Lean Cruz States
Oregon: 28 delegates (P)
Washington: 44 delegates (NWTAT)
Likely Cruz States
Nebraska: 36 delegates (WTA)
Montana: 27 delegates (WTA)
South Dakota: 29 delegates (WTA)
0 comments:
Post a Comment