If you want to understand the dynamics of a contested Republican Convention try thinking about the four days in Cleveland without being distracted by the names.

It is very easy to get caught up in the personality battles and to think that because Republican elites don’t like certain candidates they can stop them. This is not likely.  

The way to see this is to look at what might transpire without paying attention to the names. There are 2472 delegates.  One candidate is likely to walk in with between 40% and 50% of those delegates. Another candidate is likely to walk in with between 30% and 40% of the delegates. The remaining 20% or so of all delegates are awarded to other candidates or uncommitted. 

 In such a circumstance it is exceptionally difficult for a candidate who is not one of the first two candidates to win. Even assuming someone can instantly rally all of the delegates not pledged to one of the other two candidates, the rally leader is still significantly behind. The trailing third party would need defections from more than 50% from one or the other leading camp, or would need some combination of defections from both camps without a critical mass of defections going in the other direction. Candidate 1 who is between 40% and 50% can win by getting only a third of the votes from candidate 2.  Candidate 2 can win mostly from the uncommitted pile.   So could candidate 1.   Tremendous disloyalty from delegates elected for both Candidate 1 and Candidate 2 would be needed to elect someone other than candidate 1 or candidate 2.  Candidates 1 and 2 also likely control a majority on bodies related to rules, and perhaps can shape things so that only the two leaders may be nominated.   This is why, although fantasies about neither Trump nor Cruz might be fun, it is exceptionally difficult to actually get there.