The Republican primary process is
not over. It is still possible that the forces arrayed against Donald Trump
will simply not let it happen but the facts, as they are currently coming in,
suggest strongly that Trump will be the nominee of the Republican Party. Thus
it is time to take an early look at the race against Hillary Clinton.
We started about a month ago http://mcfd2016.blogspot.com/2016/03/a-bridge-to-general-election.html. At that time, we looked at what numbers the candidates
would need in particular demographic groups in a typical close presidential race,
such as Obama v. Romney in 2008 or Bush v. Kerry in 2004.
At least initially, however, we are not looking a typical race.
Trump is weaker with Hispanics and educated women than the average Republican
would be. Although Trump has been winning Republican women he has been doing
less well with women than men. Hispanics are an absolute nightmare for Trump; he
is only getting about half of Romney’s already way too weak support. Overall this
has led to a Clinton lead of 8.5% in the RCP average. This lead is bigger than
Obama’s substantial 2008 victory and its about as big a lead as one can
possibly expect in these polarized times.
Despite all the talk, there are no groups with whom Trump
out performs Romney in current polling match ups. This may change but for now the weaknesses are
far greater than any possible strengths.
Doing well with
Republicans does not mean doing well with the country. This is where the race
starts.
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