Just when
things seem to be going off the rails for Donald Trump with reports of
unfriendly delegates elected all across the country, his old friend,
multi-candidate field dynamics, emerges to come to his aid.
Trump has proven
exceptionally difficult to beat in any field where there is more than one main
competitor. Even in contests such as Wisconsin and Ohio in which there were technically
more than one competitor to Trump, voters have been remarkably savvy at
figuring out who is viable and who is not.
(Cruz was the real contender in Wisconsin, Kasich was in Ohio.) Trump
has benefited from incomplete winnowing of his opponents. Marco Rubio’s
not-quite-dead-yet campaign almost certainly won North Carolina and Missouri
for the Donald. The very large field has helped Trump every step of the
way.
As we turn our attention to the Northeast, this dynamic is
still playing out to Trump’s advantage. For the forces trying to stop Trump in
New York, the strategy should be simple -- keep Trump under 50% both statewide
and in every congressional district deny delegates, possibly turning a 95-delegate
day for Trump into a 65-delegate day and a huge problem for him. This should be
a concerted team effort by all the non-Trump forces. With Trump currently
polling at 53.5%, it would not take too much to knock him under 50%, at least
in some congressional districts.
But if you are John
Kasich, while denying Trump delegates and winning a few for yourself would be
nice, you have a bigger, immediate problem. Your campaign has been mired in
third for far too long. To remain viable, you need to beat Cruz in New York
more than you need any other outcome. At the moment, Kasich’s effort to top
Cruz is working. He is polling a little better than two points ahead of Cruz.
That’s why Kasich is attacking Cruz in ads. Even if those ads end up sending a
vote Trump’s way, it is essential for Kasich.
If Kasich is successful in this strategy, not just in New
York on April 19 but across the Northeast on April 26th, the
Republican contest may once again appear to be a three-person race. This makes
Indiana on May 3rd, a crucial state for Cruz, more challenging.
Kasich is not competitive in Indiana but, coming off a strong Northeast finish,
he may be competitive enough to deliver Indiana to Trump. If Kasich remains
even somewhat viable by the time California rolls around in June, he could drop
Trump’s win number from the mid 40s, which has been hard for him to hit, to the
high 30s which he has hit repeatedly.
Multi-candidate field dynamics may once again have opened a
door for Trump that his recent struggles should have shut.
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