Tomorrow will tell us a lot. Is Donald Trump the candidate of
40% of Republicans, a very sizable plurality but not really within striking
distance of a majority? Or is Donald Trump gaining enough strength to put the
race well and truly away?
The do-or-die state for the effort to stop Trump is Indiana next
week. Cruz and Kasich have already signed an alliance to give Cruz votes in the
Hoosier state. Yet, we’ll probably have a good indication tomorrow whether a
serious effort to derail Trump will succeed. Trump is exceptionally likely to
win all five states tomorrow: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and
Rhode Island.
Yet, there’s still a question whether those wins will be because
of a continued spilt among Republicans or because Trump has secured a healthy
plurality. To judge that we’ll need to see whether he’s able to make
substantial gains over his past performance in demographically similar states.
Trump got 49% in Massachusetts. So to be gaining, he needs to break 50% in
demographically similar Connecticut and Rhode Island. In Pennsylvania, 45%
would seem to be the number that would signal a break through. In Maryland, 43%
would seem to be what he needs. In Delaware, 50% seems to be the baseline though
it’s hard to get a read because there are very few “like” states.
When it comes to delegates, Trump seems certain to gain at
least 88 delegates while another 20 are up for grabs. Another 10 delegates
likely won’t go to Trump because of Rhode Island’s proportionality rules. Pennsylvania
will contribute 17 of the 88 delegates Trump will surely win. That’s for winning
the state. Pennsylvania’s remaining 54 delegates are the largest and
most complicated prize of the night. They come from the three delegates available in each of Pennsylvania’s 18
Congressional districts, but they are unbound so there is no easy way to
predict which delegate candidates will win and to whom they will pledged. The
stronger Trump performs in the state, the more pressure the delegates will feel
to be with him.
If Trump beats these
goals in all five states, Indiana and perhaps the entire defensive line against
Trump will crumble. He will be the nominee. But if he doesn’t capture all the
states by the needed margin on Tuesday, then chaos will likely result. It is very close. Here is what we see as the allocations for
each state.
Connecticut
Total: Trump 19 Kasich 9
|
Delegate Allocation
|
Trump
|
Kasich
|
Cruz
|
|
At Large
|
7
|
6
|
0
|
|
CT 1
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
CT 2
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
CT 3
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
CT 4
|
0
|
3
|
0
|
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CT 5
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
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Delaware
Total: Trump 16 Others
0
Maryland
Total: Trump 32 Kasich 6
|
Delegate Allocation
|
Trump
|
Kasich
|
Cruz
|
|
At Large
|
13
|
0
|
0
|
|
MD 1
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
MD 2
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
MD 3
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
MD 4
|
0
|
3
|
0
|
|
MD 5
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
MD 6
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
MD 7
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
MD 8
|
0
|
3
|
0
|
Pennsylvania
Total: Trump 17 Unbound 54
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Rhode Island:
Total: Trump 9 Kasich 6 Cruz 4
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