As the primaries enter the home stretch, we thought now was
as good a time as any to update our readers on the success of our predictions. On
the Democratic side, there have been 37 contests to date. Multi-Candidate field dynamics has correctly
predicted 34 of them. We missed two
(Oklahoma, Michigan), and forgot to call one in the North Mariana Islands. So we’ve had 34 out of 36 correct. In terms of Democratic delegates, out of the
2404 that have been awarded, we predicted Secretary Clinton to be getting only
28 more than she currently is receiving.
We have basically 90% of delegates in the correct place. In primaries, which have awarded 1862
delegates, we have Secretary Clinton running only six total delegates ahead of
her actual pace. So our prediction rates
run well into the 90% range.
On the Republican side
we have correctly called 28 of the 33 contests (missing in Minnesota, Alaska, Oklahoma,
Hawaii and Maine, only one of which, Oklahoma, was a primary), and we have been
out front on all the big trends. We had Cruz against the polls in Iowa. We had
the correct finish order in New Hampshire. We saw the importance of delegate
thresholds with respect to Rubio in Texas. We saw the effect of Zombie campaigns and the damage each candidate
pressing on for another week would cause everyone but Trump as votes cast for
Rubio in Missouri and North Carolina likely cost Ted Cruz both of those states.
On the verge of the Iowa Caucus, we
understood how multi-candidate field dynamics would play out over the course of
this campaign. On the R side we have a
lower percentage of things correct, but given the degree of difficulty we did
even better there.
Conclusion:
We intend to
provide on point coverage as the race continues, but we thought it worthwhile
to highlight what we have done so far.
The Scorecard
The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.
Our Delegate Math
About Me
Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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