There was supposed to be suspense on
the Republican side. It sometimes feels that at the last minute the Republicans
will pull themselves back from the brink of a Trump nomination but there is not
much in the way of evidence to support that. The two most recent polls in
Indiana show double-digit Trump leads. There was one outlier poll for Cruz but the
period over which it was conducted was way too long. Plus, it does not take
enough account of what happened in New York and the Acela primaries of the
Eastern seaboard states. Trump is on track for all 57 delegates and a smooth path
to the nomination. Republicans seem to have realized their choice was Trump or
chaos and chose Trump.
Total Trump 57 Cruz 0 Kasich 0
|
Delegate Allocation
|
Trump
|
Cruz
|
Kasich
|
|
IN AL
|
30
|
0
|
0
|
|
IN 1
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
IN 2
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
IN 3
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
IN 4
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
IN 5
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
IN 6
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
IN 7
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
IN 8
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
|
IN 9
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
On the Democratic side, this
primary has the demographic makings of a photo finish. We think it could either
be like Michigan, which Sanders just won, or like Missouri, which Clinton just
won. We think Clinton will pull it out by the absolute smallest of margins and net
only one delegate. But if it tips the
other way it would not be a surprise. Another non-surprise would be a Clinton
statewide win and a Sanders delegate win; what are likely to be Clinton
districts have an even number of delegates and what are likely to be Sanders
districts have an odd number.
Total: Clinton 42
Sanders 41
|
Delegate Allocation
|
Clinton
|
Sanders
|
|
IN AL
|
9
|
9
|
|
IN PLEO
|
5
|
4
|
|
IN 1
|
5
|
3
|
|
IN 2
|
3
|
3
|
|
IN 3
|
2
|
3
|
|
IN 4
|
2
|
3
|
|
IN 5
|
3
|
4
|
|
IN 6
|
2
|
3
|
|
IN 7
|
5
|
3
|
|
IN 8
|
3
|
3
|
|
IN 9
|
3
|
3
|
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