The challenge Donald Trump poses to the Republican Party is
enormous, and the last day of competitive races proved it. Trump won a crucial victory
in Indiana, but he also faced a furious Ted Cruz swinging for his head in a
spectacular manner that is difficult to walk back. The fight alone presents
problems for Republicans because elections in America have become team sports. People choose a side and stick with it. Yes,
there are some crossover voters who back a Democrat for President and
Republican for Congress but in the 2012 election there were only 26 ticket
splitting district, about 6% of the overall total. The end of ticket splitting
combined with the splitting of the Republican Party is a risky business for all
Republicans on the 2016 ballot.
The
Republican Party can be divided into five relatively equal pieces in terms of
their attitude toward the presumptive nominee.
Twenty
percent of the Republican electorate is hardcore, super excited, go Trump
people. They go to rallies, they make noise, they love Trump and, if crossed,
they will create a problem.
Another 20%
are simply Trump voters. They like him, they decided he was the best choice but
they can blend back into being ordinary Republicans relatively quickly.
Another 20%
didn’t vote for Trump or did so but only late in the process and somewhat
reluctantly. They are inclined to vote for him in the general election but can
be susceptible to new, negative information.
Another 20%
opposed Trump, some proudly, but they are Republicans and so in the end they
will likely come around.
Another 20%
seem implacably opposed to Trump. The list of those who announced they won’t
vote for Trump is long and may get longer, including the most recent Republican
nominee, Mitt Romney.
The problem
for Team Red is that it needs 90% of all Republicans, whatever Trump group they
fall in, to vote for its down ballot candidates. Otherwise Republican
incumbents in a remotely marginal seat with an even half way decent challenger
will lose.
This is
where the risk comes. Even if the entire 60% in the middle will vote for
Republican candidates no matter what, the 20% of voters on either extreme are a
risk for defection regardless of what a candidate chooses to do. Hardcore Trump
people may not want to vote for any mainstream Republican for fear that person
is plotting against Trump. ` Never Trump’ may want to punish any Republican who
stands by the Donald as means of discouraging Republicans from doing so. No
matter what candidates choose to do they risk alienating 20% of their base. But
if they try and hide, they risk alienating 40% of their base as both Trump
lovers and haters don’t know where they stand.
In addition,
the ranks of the Trump lovers and haters could expand should things get even more
acrimonious. Earlier today Paul Ryan met with Trump without anything being resolved,
after Ryan suggested he wasn’t quite ready to be on board with Trump. That was
enough to prompt Sean Hannity to say he wants a new Speaker.
Dissension
and division spill out everywhere and no one knows whom to trust or what policy
agenda will be set. Does voting for a House Republican mean building a wall and
a crackdown on trade, or comprehensive immigration reform and free trade?
If this
squabbling leads the average Republican candidate to get just 80% of the traditional
Republican vote then the party could end up in huge trouble. It’s hard to know
how to solve this problem, which doesn’t get much easier even if Trump’s
performance improves to 47% of the electorate.
This might
be why Republicans are meeting and trying and hoping to get on the same page,
but it still could all be for naught.
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