We have a short post this week because the RCP average has
only one new national poll since our last post. We are still trying to get a
fix on what the Internet polling means, so for now we are sticking with
RCP. One poll in a week is not much to
work with. It is possible there is simply a lull for Memorial Day or that
polling companies are reluctant to be overly involved when the primary is still
technically happening. But still all we have is a new Rasmussen poll, which
flipped from Trump plus 5 to Clinton plus 1. We have a smattering of state
polls, and we will begin the digging into them a bit more once nominees are
chose. For now the real news is not the
polls but the lack of polls. Hopefully
next week will be better or this segment may be on the chopping block.
The Scorecard
The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.
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About Me
Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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