There can be
no doubt that presidential race looks much closer than it did just three weeks
ago. In fact, the latest RCP average has
Donald Trump leading by .2.
This is a
particularly difficult time for the Clinton campaign as it continues to battle
on two fronts. Trump meanwhile is pretty much doing nothing but coasting and
evidently keeping much of the schedule he built when he thought the primaries would
be contested.
We won’t
really know what the general election match up will look like until it has
begun though we are starting to see the basic contours of the race. The most
interesting thing so far about the general election polling is the number of
undecided voters. The RCP average has the two leading candidates combined for
just 86.6 of the vote. In the 2012 contest between Obama and Romney closer to
93 percent favored one candidate or the other. This adds greater uncertainty. Although it is likely that the undecideds will
return to their basic party identification, we can’t say for certain until that
happens.
The other
key thing to watch is the generational gap. Trump has built a small lead with
seniors (those over 65) that is considerably smaller than Romney’s 12-point victory
in this category. With a current average lead of only 4.25, Trump will need to
do better with seniors. All the polls give Clinton a lead with those under 30, but
the margins are thinner that those of the previous Democratic nominee. Obama
won this group in 2012 by 23 points. Clinton only leads by a little under 13
points. This is an absolutely critical number for Clinton to improve.
In scouting
the national polls, our initial instinct is to prefer the NBC/Wall Street
Journal poll because its margins look much closer to 2012. It has seniors at the
Romney level for Trump and younger people at the Obama level for Clinton.
Obviously, cross-tabs in a poll are not to be trusted. The Fox poll, for
example, had seniors as a plus +5 Clinton group and still had her losing. And there is danger in digging too deeply into
the cross-tabs because they can be used to make just about any candidate seem
as if they are winning. Still this generational divide is key. If Clinton can
win under 30s by 20 and lose over 65s by under 10 then she will win. If either
margin contracts or expands, Trump has a real shot. It’s very hard to change the
overall percentage of the electorate that these groups make up, so the margins
are the critical factor.
From now on, we will keep our eyes focused on
the polls through a weekly roundup.
0 comments:
Post a Comment