Tuesday is
definitely looking like the day Hillary Clinton clinches the nomination. At this
moment, Clinton needs 161 delegates to have the number she needs for a majority
(2383). There remain 167 unpledged super delegates. Given the current lead of
more than 4-1 for Clinton in super delegates and given current reporting on who
will go where, there is no doubt Clinton actually has many more than are
publicly committed to her. We see Clinton gaining 54 delegates Tuesday. Combined
with her support from the remaining super delegates, she will likely clinch. We
will make predictions for the last 11 contests, and tomorrow actually has two
very interesting ones, but realize that after tomorrow we are fairly certain
Clinton has the number of delegates she needs for the nomination.
Kentucky
The demographics
in this state are all over the map, which makes for a very close race. What is
interesting here is that of the eight delegate bundles in the state, including two
statewide allocations and six congressional districts, only three have an-odd number
of delegates. That means even a remotely close race will lead to an almost even
allocation of the delegates. Because both statewide allocations are even, a
possibility exists that the statewide winner may not get the most delegates.
Someone needs to win by eight points statewide to avoid an even split in the
delegates allocated on a statewide basis. The KY 3rd, which
encompasses Louisville, could determine the statewide winner because it has far
and away the most Democratic voters. But the closest race is likely to be in
the KY 1st, which would mean this district in the western part of
the state would decide the delegate winner. We think Clinton wins both
statewide and in delegates but it could go either way in both. Regardless, it’s
unlikely anyone is going to net more than three delegates in the state.
Total: Clinton 28 Sanders 27
|
Delegate Allocation
|
Clinton
|
Sanders
|
|
KY AL
|
6
|
6
|
|
KY PLEO
|
3
|
3
|
|
KY 1
|
3
|
2
|
|
KY 2
|
3
|
3
|
|
KY 3
|
5
|
4
|
|
KY 4
|
3
|
3
|
|
KY 5
|
2
|
2
|
|
KY 6
|
3
|
4
|
Oregon
Everything
about this state’s demographics (relatively small proportion of minorities,
relatively large proportion of young people and progressives) and what has happened
with these groups so far suggest that Sanders should win and fairly
comfortably. But we are somewhat shooting in the dark here as we have only one
public poll and it has Clinton by a 15-point margin. Combined with this being a
closed primary only available to Democrats and reports of seniors far out
pacing younger people in ballot returns, there is some grounds for hesitation.
The Sanders campaign’s energy may simply be sapped. That could allow Clinton to
eek out a win here. It is doubtful but the data is a mess. We still think
Sanders wins here.
Total: Sanders 35 Clinton 26
|
Delegate Allocation
|
Sanders
|
Clinton
|
|
OR AL
|
7
|
6
|
|
OR PLEO
|
4
|
3
|
|
OR 1
|
5
|
4
|
|
OR 2a
|
2
|
1
|
|
OR 2b
|
2
|
1
|
|
OR 3
|
7
|
4
|
|
OR 4
|
4
|
4
|
|
OR 5
|
4
|
3
|
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