Friday, May 27, 2016

The Trump Who Cries Wolf, and the Press that Always Comes

There are lots of explanations for how Trump was able to get so far, including the dark impulses of the Republican base. But Trump’s ability to turn the press into his tool is the one that really stands out. The last 48 hours has brought that into strong relief through the coverage of the prospects for a Trump-Sanders debate.  

The press adores norm violations. Nothing makes for better news than norms being violated.  Trump knows this, which is why he floated a Trump-Sanders debate on Wednesday and Thursday. A debate between one party’s presumptive nominee and a challenger in another party would have been a supreme violation of political norms. Trump also knew, as he always does, that the press wouldn’t function as a referee. In fact, even as we were writing Trump put out this statement.  https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/donald-j.-trump-statement-on-debating-bernie-sanders  Everything that he says in this statement is a lie. The networks weren’t going to make “a killing” with a Trump-Sanders debate because a tech company had offered to put up the money to sponsor it. If it was appropriate to debate “the second place finisher” on Wednesday night, why did it become inappropriate on Friday? Trump stokes anger that Clinton’s win is tainted, just as he does whenever he does not like the outcome.  He claims he wants to do something, debate Sanders, that he has the power to do. All of his conditions were met, and yet he refuses to and he will walk away unscathed. Sanders will be the one who looks foolish because, in the press-portrayal, what could you have possibly have expected when dealing with Donald Trump.

But the point is the press should be scathing. Donald Trump agreed to a debate and then weaseled out of it. That is what happened. There is no other interpretation. But that will not be the way it’s presented.  Instead, the coverage will be that the debate fell through. That’s what was expected all along because the debate itself was a violation of the norms.

This was news for two days. Will they or won’t they debate is a much better topic than almost any other for Trump and he got two days out of it.  This is like the story of the boy who cried wolf, except in this version no matter how many times the boy cries wolf and no how matter incredulous the people hearing the story are about the wolf, they always come running. It doesn’t matter how ridiculous the story or how little the boy is believed, the people respond. The system requires that they investigate whether there is a wolf. The absence of a wolf this time (or every other time for that matter) does not free them of the responsibility of investigating whether there is a wolf the next time.  
Trump knows what the rules are and he mercilessly exploits them. The press does not call him the boy who cried wolf or put each new lie in the context of the boy’s credibility. Thus each wolf hunt gets its own investigation. Trump has been doing this throughout the process and he will continue to until the press finally stops running. 


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The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.

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Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.