We can begin with basics. Trump is the nominee. He will win
West Virginia tomorrow. He also should win Nebraska, though there is the
slightest of doubt there. Early voting in the state means some votes were cast
before Trump became the de facto nominee.
We won’t make any more R predictions. Trump should win all of
the remaining states. Margins will be a little interesting in gauging how much
resistance remains, particularly in the states that hold regular as well as
Presidential preference primaries at the same time. In strictly Presidential
preference votes those who oppose Trump most likely won’t vote, but in states
with other things on the ballot it might indicate the degree to which
Republicans have reconciled themselves to the nominee.
As for the Democrats, clinching day rapidly approaches. Until
now, we have focused on pledged delegates alone and rightly so; the winner of
the pledged delegates was always likely to be the nominee. Because that person
can no longer be in doubt (If you want to try to do the Sanders math to a
majority be our guest), it makes sense to begin to factor in the super
delegates. Given her support with super delegates, Hillary Clinton should
receive an overall majority quite soon.
A majority of delegates on the Democratic side is 2,383.
Clinton currently has 2,209, according to The Green Papers.com (a site the big
boys, 538, New York Times, use too). That means she only needs 174 more delegates
with 169 super delegates still in play.
West Virginia has 29 at stake. We think Sanders is going to win and the
split will be 16-13 in his favor. However, such a split will still give Clinton
13 delegates and mean that she might be able to capture a majority with not a
single new pledged delegate (even though she will pick up a 100 more). The only
way for her to clinch tomorrow would be for nearly all the uncommitted super
delegates to commit to her tomorrow, which is unlikely. She could clinch the following
week, however, when 116 delegates are at stake in Kentucky and Oregon. Even if
she loses both states, Clinton should win enough delegates that it’s reasonable
to assume the remaining supers will be enough in her favor to clinch. She should clinch on May 17th. No one will say it. The Clinton campaign will
hide it because it doesn’t want to make it seem as if the super delegates put
her over the top. But it will be the case.
West
Virginia allocation follows.
Total: Sanders 16 Clinton 13
|
Delegate Allocation
|
Sanders
|
Clinton
|
|
WV AL
|
3
|
3
|
|
WV PLEO
|
2
|
1
|
|
WV 1
|
4
|
3
|
|
WV 2
|
4
|
3
|
|
WV 3
|
3
|
3
|
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