Donald Trump has benefited tremendously from having lots of targets while his opponents had to worry not just about him but about how they stacked up against all the other candidates. Trump won’t be able to keep that dynamic going; the race will of course ultimately narrow to only two candidates. (We will discuss the potential role of third party candidates latter, but it can be safely assumed they will not be serious competitors.)
But for now Trump has the advantage of a split opposition. This is where Trump is peak Trump. John McCain had a similar situation in 2008 and he said pretty much nothing about the continuing fight between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. By contrast, Trump can not shut up about Bernie Sanders and Clinton. He is trying to make sure the Democratic process is as bitter and nasty as possible.
Trump did this most successfully in the last 24 hours when he seemingly challenged Bernie Sanders to a debate. This elevated Sanders, drew attention to Trump, and led the Democrats to fight over whether it was even appropriate for Sanders to consent to such a debate.
Less than two weeks are likely left in the Democratic primary process, though it might stretch to a little more than three weeks. Before the voting stops June 14th, Trump hopes to inflict as much damage as as possible, making it harder for the Sanders people to come around to Clinton as their nominee. Trump is playing upon Sanders’ desire for continued attention.
The idea of a Sanders-Trump debate is very exciting to Sanders people. They are certain Sanders can use the debate to show up Trump. But Trump did not actually agree to a debate, he floated a notion. The notion hangs in the air and hangs in the air. Because the Sanders people believe this debate would be helpful, they would be inclined to hold back on Trump attacks they would otherwise make to up their chances of getting the debate. The Sanders campaign is just another mouse for Trump to toy with.
There will likely be no debate. The Sanders campaign will get nowhere when it complains to the press that Trump broke his word because breaking his word is just what Trump does. Even if there is a debate, as much as Sanders might try to make it about Trump, Trump will make it about Hillary. And even if Sanders crushes Trump, all that might do is make people long for Sanders and not hurt Trump an iota.
This is how Trump has done so well, playing every angle and letting rumors and notions replace substance. If Trump is losing, he changes the subject instantly. He will do or say something that we all think is dumb because it takes attention away from a bigger problem.
Sanders is now stuck in that web. With only ten days or so left in the Democratic process, Trump is milking the last gasp of multi-candidate field dynamics for all it’s worth. There are about five months until the general election. Every day Trump can kill is his friend. This is Trump at his best.
The Scorecard
The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.
Our Delegate Math
About Me
Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
0 comments:
Post a Comment