March 15th Republican Preview

So Tuesday is a big one both for narrative and for delegates. It will also answer whether the race going forward will be a two-man or a three-man race. All eyes are on Ohio where the too-close-to-call race between Trump and Kasich is incredibly close.  We believe Kasich will prevail in the end but we can’t deny hourly fluctuations in our faith.   Yet while Ohio is going to be close, Florida, barring an upset of unimaginable proportions, is a Trump state and the end of Senator Rubio.

 North Carolina has some intrigue as to its margin, however since North Carolina is a strictly proportional state its overall impact will be minimal. The key places to watch are the Congressional district delegates in Illinois and Missouri.  While Trump is favored to win both states, many of the Congressional districts may well fall to Ted Cruz, and a few might even fall to John Kasich. Summary and complete allocations follow. It is also important to remember that no matter what happens on Tuesday (even if Trump wipes out all opposition), Trump will still have less than 2/3^rd of the delegates he needs.

Total: Trump 224  Kasich 83 Cruz 56  Rubio 4

Florida: Trump 99 Delegates

Ohio: Kasich 66 Delegates

North Carolina: Trump  31  Cruz  26  Kasich 11 Rubio 4

Missouri: Trump 37 Cruz 15

Illinois Trump 48 Cruz 15 Kasich 6

North Mariana Islands: 9-0 Trump.

Allocations

Bucket	Trump	Cruz
MO At Large	12	0
MO 1	5	0
MO 2	5	0
MO 3	5	0
MO 4	5	0
MO 5	5	0
MO 6	0	5
MO 7	0	5
MO 8	0	5
Bucket     Trump Cruz Kasich IL AL 15 0 0 IL 1 3 0 0 IL 2 3 0 0 IL 3 3 0 0 IL 4 3 0 0 IL 5 3 0 0 IL 6 3 0 0 IL 7 3 0 0 IL 8 3 0 0 IL 9 0 0 3 IL 10 0 0 3 IL 11 3 0 0 IL 12 3 0 0 IL 13 0 3 0 IL 14 3 0 0 IL 15 0 3 0 IL 16 0 3 0 IL 17 0 3 0 IL 18 0 3 0