The Ultimate Multi-Candidate Field Dynamics Dilemma: Is It Better for Not-Trump if Kasich Does or Does Not Win Ohio?

We are getting a sense of what the Republican primary end game will look like. Five states vote on Tuesday. If trends hold Trump looks likely to win in Missouri, Illinois, Florida and North Carolina. These results alone should net him roughly 245 delegates. (Cruz or Kasich could win some Congressional districts in Missouri and Illinois that have the potential to decrease Trump’s total but for simplicity’s sake we’re assuming he takes all and can round down accordingly.) Rubio looks completely dead in Florida and everywhere else, so he will likely be gone by Wednesday.

What will happen in Ohio is very much up for grabs and determines to some degree whether we will continue writing about multi-candidate field dynamics. If John Kasich wins Ohio, which is looking more and more likely, he stays in the race. That decision has an incredible impact on the race going forward. And the race will continue under either scenario. Even with a clean sweep of Ohio, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina, Donald Trump will still be only about 63% of the way to getting the 1237 delegates he needs for the nomination.

The question bedeviling Republicans is whether a Kasich win is good for stopping Trump or bad for stopping Trump. This argument splits into three parts. We will show how a Kasich win is bad for stopping Trump, good for stopping Trump, and uncertain for stopping Trump.

A Kasich Win is Bad for Stopping Trump

At first glance, it seems like a good idea to deny Trump Ohio’s 66 delegates but upon closer inspection the math gets really crazy. Arizona votes the very next week. It is winner take all and has 58 delegates. A poll conducted in the state just yesterday shows the race: Trump 37, Cruz 23, Kasich 15, and Rubio 12. Rubio will be gone--although because of absentee ballots not all of his votes will be. In a two-person race, Trump versus Cruz, this would appear to be a close contest. But if Kasich stays in that clearly helps Trump win Arizona. Utah, on the same day, has a precinct caucus. Delegates are allocated proportionally with a 15% threshold to get any delegates, but if a candidate reaches 50%, he wins all the delegates. Based on LDS voting (members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, or Mormons) in places such as Idaho. Cruz could get to 50% in Utah, even with Kasich in the race. Without him, he almost certainly does. Otherwise, Trump won’t win but based on how he did in Idaho, he could walk away with 10 delegates. Therefore in just the next two states, Kasich’s continuing presence in the race could give Trump all the delegates that Kasich took from him in Ohio. In addition, Washington state has a 50% winner take all threshold that could be good for Cruz in a race without Kasich. Also, Cruz might be able to win the winner-take-all states of Nebraska, Montana, and South Dakota even with Kasich in the race but he’s more likely to if he is gone. These are the main reasons a Kasich win is bad for Not-Trump.

A Kasich Win is Good for Stopping Trump

However things are not quite that simple. Trump so far has been incredibly strong in Blue States and In Northeastern states, with the exception of the Maine caucus. New Jersey, New York, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware and Pennsylvania are all upcoming and together hold 299 delegates. New Jersey and Delaware are winner take all, while Connecticut, Maryland and Pennsylvania are near winner take all. There isn’t polling in those states so far, with the exception of this survey of Connecticut business people.

The survey has a very small sample size so it should be taken with mounds of salt. It showed Trump and Kasich running close--with Cruz far behind. This suggests Kasich will do better as a Trump alternative in the North, as the results in New Hampshire, Vermont, and Massachusetts also bear out. New York is particularly helpful to the Kasich is good for stopping Trump argument. New York has winner-take-all triggers at 50%, which Trump would almost certainly clear in a two-man race but which he could be held under in a three-person race. This could keep Trump from upwards of 30 delegates in New York. Those delegates, plus those Kasich would get in Ohio, is why Kasich is good for not Trump.

A Kasich Win is Mixed for Stopping Trump

The crown jewel states of Wisconsin, Indiana and California seem to point to a mixed result if Kasich is still in the race when voters go to the polls in April, May and June. Each state is near winner take all at the Congressional district and statewide level. Cruz could sweep them all one on one but there are clearly pockets that would favor Kasich. The problem is that a three-way race risks another Michigan-like result with Trump getting around 35% of the vote but still parlaying that to a lot of delegates. The plus side is that Kasich makes a better challenger to Trump in California than Cruz and together they pick off more delegates than Trump. The downside is all three states will resemble Michigan and Trump will win a lot.

What Would be Required to Stop Trump

This is a puzzle. It requires Cruz and Kasich to sit down and sign an agreement to encourage strategic voting among their supporters. The candidates then need to actively and constantly push this agreement to deny Trump delegates. However that may be exactly the sort of activity that feeds the fires of the Trumpism and builds the narrative of the big bad establishment out to get conservatives. For that reason, Cruz is unlikely to go along. And the one attempt at such a deal didn’t work at all. Kasich brutally brushed aside Rubio’s minor effort to get an Ohio-for-Florida swap with Kasich. Even if such a deal could be reached, it would be incredibly difficult to get people to vote strategically. More than anything else, it is the lack of strategic voting that has enabled Trump’s rise. Trump’s entire lead can be attributed to the 48 delegates he received in Texas and Cruz did not. Cruz did not get to 50% in Texas because other candidates, mostly Rubio, blocked that path. Had Cruz been able to get to 50% and thus trigger the winner take all provision, he and Trump would be basically tied. It would have been 155 to 0 Cruz, as opposed to 104 Cruz, 48 Trump,3 Rubio. No use crying over spilled delegates but this shows just how important the rules are and how strange this process can be.