An early take on the Democratic field.

            Welcome back to week two of the New Scorecard.  As promised we take our very first look at the Democratic field.   A lot has been going on, even since last week, and it can be hard to keep track of it all.  So this is merely a helpful guide to thinking of candidates in four distinct categories.

Senators (9): So far three Senators have entered the race, Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts), Kirsten Gillibrand (New York) and Kamala Harris (California).  We also see campaigns brewing from Senators Cory Booker (New Jersey), Sherrod Brown (Ohio) Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota) and Bernie Sanders (Vermont). We also have two more Senators who are mulling Michael Bennett (Colorado) and Jeff Merkley (Oregon) These 9 Senators seems to be the only ones genuinely considering the race at this point.  Successful Senators need to end up capturing their homes states and doing well in their regions.  Having too many candidates from one’s home region or more than one from home state can devastate their ability to win. This is mostly so far good news for Harris.  She is mostly alone in California, and it is far and away the largest place.  

Current and Former House Members (5) So far two have jumped in: Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (HI 2), who is off a rocky start with just a small, if loyal, following and former Congressman John Delaney (MD 6) who has been running the longest but has so far failed to gain traction. Three others are strongly considering the race: Beto O’Rourke (TX 16), Tim Ryan (OH 13) and Eric Swalwell (CA 15). Of these Beto O’Rourke is clearly the strongest and someone we might well be waiting to hear from. So far the other two would appear to face long odds. 

Executives (8) These are current or former Governors or Mayors. Two are in, Julian Castro former HUD Secretary and mayor of San Antonio, and 37-year-old Peter Buttigieg Mayor of South Bend, Indiana.  Six others are seriously contemplating a run: Michael Bloomberg, billionaire and former Mayor of New York City; Eric Garcetti, Mayor of Los Angeles; John Hickenlooper, former Governor of Colorado; Jay Inslee, Governor of Washington; Mitch Landrieu, former Mayor of New Orleans; and Terry McAuliffe, former Governor of Virginia.  Each and every one of them has at least an interesting story to tell, but part of their problem is that executives can often be less known than Senators because they lack the ability to get press coverage in D.C. The list also includes several former officials, who can face even more difficult challenges because without being able to do something on one’s own, it can be too easy to become lost.  Bloomberg, because of his resources, obviously stands out as an exception, but he has other problems. Whether someone from this lane can seriously compete remains to be seen.

The Vice President and the Rest: This group includes some people running or considering a run to make a point, such as Richard Ojeda, former state Senator from West Virginia, and Andrew Yang an Entrepreneur running on a platform of ideas.  Of course, Joe Biden former Vice President of the United States, looms over the field as someone who because of name recognition and the massive field would doubtless start off as the front runner (when given too many flavors, vanilla seems pretty good). In the absence of Biden, Eric Holder, former Attorney General might still throw his hat in, though he has been quiet for a while. Howard Schultz, former Starbucks CEO, was in the mix though word is rumbling that he may be considering an Independent run instead.

            It is obviously early, but these are four places from which candidates are starting.  Those who are in have an advantage over those who are out, with Biden looming over the field. More to come next week.