Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Why this particular chaos is poor for Trump politically



Why this particular Chaos is poor for Trump politically



   This week was supposed to be about why healthcare politics are particularly fraught, and I am definitely going to return to that in the following weeks.
But for now, it is important to zero in on the Chaos that follows the aftermath of the horrific mass shootings now one weekend back as well as the Jeffrey Epstein “Suicide” of this past weekend.  Donald Trump, without being quite there in terms of what he has been able to accomplish, longs for and speaks like an Authoritarian. The goal of the strongman is to provide order and to take the burdens of politics and governance off the shoulders of the populace.   When change seems impossible, the entire thought process of how it might come about begins to shut down.  There is a twisted way in which a dominant leader takes a weight off your shoulders. Your actions now matter less. 
Another regrettably, appealing feature of unbridled leadership is that the power of  The State can be turned on the people in the Nation whom core supporters of the leader don’t like. This has the effect of ending the rule of law, and instead of letting the government pick who is and is not favored.  If you find yourself favored this can feel excellent, and, as importantly, you may cheer evisceration of the rule of law’s tendency to slow down punishment and let people you don’t like to get away with too much.
The application of cruel state power, like the immigration border camps, is perfectly in keeping with authoritarian appeal. However, vigilante violence that is not part of some sort of state-aligned effort is not, particularly when it seems indiscriminate. The El Paso shooting, in particular, goes against what almost everyone in the country wants. Only a tiny fraction of the population actually supports mass shootings at a Wal-Mart as a means of targeting those of Mexican Ancestry.  Even bitter opponents of immigration know that they too might be shopping at Wal-Mart.  Since the shooter cited a lot of Trump’s invasion rhetoric in his statement, it became unfortunately clear that Trumpism was a motivating factor. 
Unleashing vigilantes strongly conveys the sense that Trump is not able to provide order. A high-profile suicide in Federal Custody adds to that sense of chaos. Amazingly enough current conditions mirror Jeb Bush’s key line about Trump --that he is a chaos President.   chaos seems more prominent with each passing day. However, chaos is the opposite of what his electorate has been promised.   The promise of the Authoritarian is order, and random mass shootings and deaths in Federal Custody are the opposite. Trump is trying hard to spin this all, blaming it on his political opponents. This may be one of the best strategies available to him.  But in the end, the inability to crush those opponents is a sign of failure as an Authoritarian.  Uncontrolled Chaos is bad for Trump. 
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Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.