Monday, March 14, 2016

Democratic March 15th preview

           No comments   
Democratic March 15th preview
                This is another case where the reported narrative outcome and the division of the delegates may cut in opposite directions. Illinois and Missouri look too close to call, with Ohio not far behind. However North Carolina and Florida look pretty near to locks for Secretary Clinton.   The key point is that barring an unbelievable miracle. Clinton will almost certainly net more delegates and likely by a not inconsiderable number.  As we have mentioned here, Ohio presents an interesting case.  There are 29 delegates available in just two districts (the Ohio 3rd and 11th). If they vote anything like the Michigan 13th and 14th, then a “loss” for Clinton in Ohio could easily mean a delegate win.  Same with Illinois. You don’t see this situation in Missouri, which is likely to follow the statewide winner.  So overall it is possible the narrative and the delegates will remain in sync this time.   But if they don’t, follow the delegates.   Find below overall totals followed by a complete allocation chart .
Totals
Overall: Clinton 395 Sanders 296
Florida Clinton 133 Sanders 81
North Carolina Clinton 67 Sanders 40
Illinois Clinton 83 Sanders 73
Ohio Clinton 76 Sanders 67
Missouri Clinton 36 Sanders 35

Bucket
Clinton
Sanders
FL AL
29
17
FL PLEO
18
10
FL 1
2
1
FL 2
4
2
FL 3
2
2
FL 4
2
2
FL 5
4
2
FL 6
3
2
FL 7
3
2
FL 8
3
2
FL 9
3
2
FL 10
3
2
FL 11
3
2
FL 12
3
2
FL 13
3
3
FL 14
3
3
FL 15
3
2
FL 16
3
3
FL 17
2
2
FL 18
4
2
FL 19
2
2
FL 20
5
2
FL 21
4
3
FL 22
4
2
FL 23
4
2
FL 24
6
2
FL 25
2
1
FL26
3
1
FL 27
3
1



Bucket
Clinton
Sanders
NC AL
13
10
NC PLEO
8
6
NC
6
2
NC 2
3
1
NC 3
3
1
NC 4
5
3
NC 5
3
2
NC 6
3
2
NC 7
3
1
NC 8
2
2
NC 9
3
2
NC 10
3
2
NC 11
2
2
NC 12
6
2
NC 13
4
2







Bucket
Clinton
Sanders
IL AL
17
17
IL PLEO
10
10
IL 1
6
3
IL 2
5
3
IL 3
3
2
IL 4
3
2
IL 5
3
3
IL 6
3
2
IL 7
6
3
IL 8
2
2
IL 9
4
3
IL 10
3
2
IL 11
2
3
Il 12
3
3
IL 13
2
3
IL 14
2
2
IL 15
2
2
IL 16
2
3
IL 17
3
3
IL 18
2
2

Buckets
Clinton
Sanders
OH AL
16
15
OH PLEO
10
9
OH 1
2
2
OH 2
2
2
OH 3
7
5
OH 4
2
2
OH 5
2
2
OH 6
2
2
OH 7
2
2
OH 8
2
2
OH 9
4
4
OH 10
2
2
OH 11
11
6
OH 12
2
2
OH 13
4
4
OH14
2
2
OH15
2
2
OH 16
2
2





Buckets
Clinton
Sanders
MO AL
8
7
MO PLEO
5
4
MO 1
6
4
MO 2
3
3
MO 3
2
3
MO 4
2
3
MO 5
4
3
MO 6
2
3
MO 7
2
2
MO 8
2
3


Share:

March 15th Republican Preview

           No comments   
So Tuesday is a big one both for narrative and for delegates. It will also answer whether the race going forward will be a two-man or a three-man race. All eyes are on Ohio where the too-close-to-call race between Trump and Kasich is incredibly close.  We believe Kasich will prevail in the end but we can’t deny hourly fluctuations in our faith.   Yet while Ohio is going to be close, Florida, barring an upset of unimaginable proportions, is a Trump state and the end of Senator Rubio.
 North Carolina has some intrigue as to its margin, however since North Carolina is a strictly proportional state its overall impact will be minimal. The key places to watch are the Congressional district delegates in Illinois and Missouri.  While Trump is favored to win both states, many of the Congressional districts may well fall to Ted Cruz, and a few might even fall to John Kasich. Summary and complete allocations follow. It is also important to remember that no matter what happens on Tuesday (even if Trump wipes out all opposition), Trump will still have less than 2/3rd of the delegates he needs.
Total: Trump 224  Kasich 83 Cruz 56  Rubio 4
Florida: Trump 99 Delegates
Ohio: Kasich 66 Delegates
North Carolina: Trump  31  Cruz  26  Kasich 11 Rubio 4
Missouri: Trump 37 Cruz 15
Illinois Trump 48 Cruz 15 Kasich 6
North Mariana Islands: 9-0 Trump.
Allocations

Bucket
    Trump
            Cruz
MO At Large
12
0
MO 1
5
0
MO 2
5
0
MO 3
5
0
MO 4
5
0
MO 5
5
0
MO 6
0
5
MO 7
0
5
MO 8
0
5


Bucket
    Trump
Cruz
Kasich
IL AL
15
0
0
IL 1
3
0
0
IL 2
3
0
0
IL 3
3
0
0
IL 4
3
0
0
IL 5
3
0
0
IL 6
3
0
0
IL 7
3
0
0
IL 8
3
0
0
IL 9
0
0
3
IL 10
0
0
3
IL 11
3
0
0
IL 12
3
0
0
IL 13
0
3
0
IL 14
3
0
0
IL 15
0
3
0
IL 16
0
3
0
IL 17
0
3
0
IL 18
0
3
0


Share:

The Scorecard

The Scorecard

The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.

Our Delegate Math


Delegate Count


Delegate Contests

About Me

Delegate Count

Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
Copyright © The Scorecard | Powered by Blogger
Design by HowlThemes | Blogger Theme by NewBloggerThemes.com
Back To Top