Monday, March 14, 2016

March 15th Republican Preview

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So Tuesday is a big one both for narrative and for delegates. It will also answer whether the race going forward will be a two-man or a three-man race. All eyes are on Ohio where the too-close-to-call race between Trump and Kasich is incredibly close.  We believe Kasich will prevail in the end but we can’t deny hourly fluctuations in our faith.   Yet while Ohio is going to be close, Florida, barring an upset of unimaginable proportions, is a Trump state and the end of Senator Rubio.
 North Carolina has some intrigue as to its margin, however since North Carolina is a strictly proportional state its overall impact will be minimal. The key places to watch are the Congressional district delegates in Illinois and Missouri.  While Trump is favored to win both states, many of the Congressional districts may well fall to Ted Cruz, and a few might even fall to John Kasich. Summary and complete allocations follow. It is also important to remember that no matter what happens on Tuesday (even if Trump wipes out all opposition), Trump will still have less than 2/3rd of the delegates he needs.
Total: Trump 224  Kasich 83 Cruz 56  Rubio 4
Florida: Trump 99 Delegates
Ohio: Kasich 66 Delegates
North Carolina: Trump  31  Cruz  26  Kasich 11 Rubio 4
Missouri: Trump 37 Cruz 15
Illinois Trump 48 Cruz 15 Kasich 6
North Mariana Islands: 9-0 Trump.
Allocations

Bucket
    Trump
            Cruz
MO At Large
12
0
MO 1
5
0
MO 2
5
0
MO 3
5
0
MO 4
5
0
MO 5
5
0
MO 6
0
5
MO 7
0
5
MO 8
0
5


Bucket
    Trump
Cruz
Kasich
IL AL
15
0
0
IL 1
3
0
0
IL 2
3
0
0
IL 3
3
0
0
IL 4
3
0
0
IL 5
3
0
0
IL 6
3
0
0
IL 7
3
0
0
IL 8
3
0
0
IL 9
0
0
3
IL 10
0
0
3
IL 11
3
0
0
IL 12
3
0
0
IL 13
0
3
0
IL 14
3
0
0
IL 15
0
3
0
IL 16
0
3
0
IL 17
0
3
0
IL 18
0
3
0


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Sunday, March 13, 2016

The Sanders “Winning” Scenario

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 For the sake of argument and because of the push back we received after calling the Democratic race, we decided to do the math on how Sanders “could” win.  Obviously, we do not think this can happen, and the delegate allocations we will post for Tuesday’s states will give a clear indication of why we think Sanders is lost.  However someone rightly pointed out that it was unfair to call for 538 to update its delegate benchmarks, unless we also did so.  What follows then is a chart showing what Sanders would need in every single delegate allocation that remains. Secretary Clinton leads by 225. This shows Sanders winning the remaining contests by 226 delegates for a 1 pledged delegate win.  We cannot envision a winning scenario for Sanders actually transpiring, but this is what it would like if it did.    
Bucket
Sanders

Clinton
OH AL
16
15
OH PLEO
10
9
OH 1
2
2
OH 2
2
2
OH 3
5
7
OH 4
2
2
OH 5
2
2
OH 6
2
2
OH 7
2
2
OH 8
2
2
OH 9
4
4
OH 10
2
2
OH 11
7
10
OH 12
2
2
OH 13
4
4
OH14
2
2
OH15
2
2
OH 16
2
2
FL AL
23
23
FL PLEO
14
14
FL 1
2
1
FL 2
3
3
FL 3
2
2
FL 4
2
2
FL 5
3
3
FL 6
3
2
FL 7
3
2
FL 8
3
2
FL 9
3
2
FL 10
3
2
FL 11
3
2
FL 12
3
2
FL 13
3
3
FL 14
3
3
FL 15
3
2
FL 16
3
3
FL 17
2
2
FL 18
3
3
FL 19
2
2
FL 20
3
4
FL 21
3
4
FL 22
3
3
FL 23
3
3
FL 24
3
5
FL 25
2
1
FL 26
2
2
FL 27
2
2
IL AL
18
16
IL PLEO
11
9
IL 1
3
6
IL 2
3
5
IL 3
3
2
IL 4
3
2
IL 5
3
3
IL 6
3
2
IL 7
3
6
IL 8
2
2
IL 9
4
3
IL 10
3
2
IL 11
3
2
IL 12
4
2
IL 13
3
2
IL 14
2
2
IL 15
2
2
IL 16
3
2
IL 17
4
2
IL 18
2
2
MO AL
9
6
MO PLEO
5
4
MO 1
4
6
MO 2
3
3
MO 3
3
2
MO 4
3
2
MO 5
3
4
MO 6
3
2
MO 7
2
2
MO 8
3
2
NC AL
11
12
NC PLEO
7
7
NC 1
3
5
NC 2
2
2
NC 3
2
2
NC 4
4
4
NC 5
2
3
NC 6
2
3
NC 7
2
2
NC 8
2
2
NC 9
3
2
NC 10
3
2
NC 11
2
2
NC 12
3
5
NC 13
3
3
AZ AL
8
8
AZ PLEO
5
4
AZ 1
3
3
AZ 2
4
4
AZ 3
3
2
AZ 4
2
2
AZ 5
3
2
AZ 6
3
3
AZ 7
3
2
AZ 8
3
2
AZ 9
3
3
ID AL
4
1
ID PLEO
2
1
ID 1
6
2
ID 2
5
2
UT AL
5
2
UT PLEO
3
1
UT 1
4
1
UT 2
4
2
UT 3
4
1
UT 4
4
2
AK AL
3
1
AK PLEO
1
1
AK 1
7
3
HI AL
4
2
HI PLEO
2
1
HI 1
6
2
HI 2
6
2
WA  AL
16
6
WA PLEO
9
3
WA 1
5
2
WA 2
5
2
WA 3
4
2
WA 4
3
1
WA 5
4
1
WA 6
5
2
WA 7
9
3
WA 8
4
2
WA 9
5
2
WA 10
4
2
WI AL
11
8
WI PLEO
6
4
WI 1
4
2
WI 2
8
3
WI 3
4
3
WI 4
4
6
WI 5
3
2
WI 6
4
2
WI 7
4
2
WI 8
4
2
WY AL
3
1
WY PLEO
1
1
WY 1
6
2
NY AL
27
27
NY PLEO
15
15
NY 1
3
3
NY 2
3
3
NY 3
3
4
NY 4
3
3
NY 5
2
4
NY 6
2
4
NY 7
3
4
NY 8
2
4
NY 9
2
4
NY 10
3
3
NY 11
3
2
NY 12
3
3
NY 13
2
4
NY 14
3
4
NY 15
2
4
NY 16
3
3
NY 17
3
3
NY 18
3
3
NY 19
3
2
NY 20
4
3
NY 21
4
2
NY 22
3
2
NY 23
3
2
NY 24
4
2
NY 25
3
3
NY 26
4
3
NY 27
4
2
CT AL
7
5
CT Pleo
4
3
CT 1
5
3
CT 2
4
3
CT 3
4
3
CT 4
4
3
CT 5
4
3
DE AL
2
3
DE PLEO
1
1
DE Wimington
1
1
DE New Castle
4
4
DE Kent
1
1
DE Sussex
1
1
MD AL
10
11
MD PLEO
5
5
MD 1
3
3
MD 2
3
4
MD 3
4
4
MD 4
4
6
MD 5
4
5
MD 6
3
4
MD 7
4
5
MD 8
4
4
PA AL
21
21
PA PLEO
10
10
PA 1
4
6
PA 2
6
8
PA 3
4
2
PA 4
4
2
PA 5
3
2
PA 6
4
3
PA 7
4
4
PA 8
4
3
PA 9
3
2
PA 10
3
2
PA 11
3
3
PA 12
3
3
PA 13
4
5
PA 14
4
5
PA 15
3
3
PA 16
3
2
PA 17
4
3
PA 18
4
2
RI AL
4
2
RI PLEO
2
1
RI 1
5
3
RI 2
4
3
IN AL
9
9
IN PLEO
5
4
IN 1
4
4
IN 2
4
2
IN 3
3
2
IN 4
3
2
IN 5
4
3
IN 6
3
2
IN 7
3
5
IN 8
4
2
IN 9
4
2
WV AL
4
2
WV PLEO
2
1
WV 1
5
2
WV 2
4
3
WV 3
4
2
KY AL
7
5
KY PLEO
4
2
KY 1
3
2
KY 2
4
2
KY 3
4
5
KY 4
4
2
KY 5
2
2
KY 6
4
3
OR AL
9
4
OR PLEO
5
2
OR 1
6
3
OR 2a
2
1
Or 2b
2
1
OR 3
8
3
OR 4
6
2
OR 5
5
2
CA AL
57
48
CA PLEO
29
24
CA 1
3
3
CA 2
5
3
CA 3
3
3
CD 4
3
3
CA 5
4
3
CA 6
4
2
CA 7
3
3
CA 8
2
3
CA 9
4
2
CA 10
2
3
CA 11
4
3
CA 12
6
3
CA 13
6
2
CA 14
4
3
CA 15
4
3
CA 16
2
3
CA 17
4
2
CA 18
5
3
CA 19
4
2
CA 20
4
2
CA 21
2
2
CA 22
2
3
CA 23
2
3
CA 24
4
2
CA 25
3
2
CA 26
3
3
CA 27
3
3
CA 28
4
3
CA 29
2
3
CA 30
3
4
CA 31
2
3
CA 32
3
3
CA 33
4
3
CA 34
2
3
CA 35
2
3
CA 36
3
2
CA 37
3
4
CA 38
3
3
CA 39
3
3
CA 40
2
3
CA 41
3
2
CA 42
2
3
CA 43
2
4
CA 44
3
3
CA 45
3
3
CA 46
2
3
CA 47
3
3
CA 48
3
3
CA 49
3
3
CA 50
3
2
CA 51
2
3
CA 52
3
3
CA 53
3
4
MT AL
3
1
MT PLEO
1
1
MT West
5
3
MT East
4
3
ND AL
3
1
PLEO
1
1
ND 1
8
4
SD AL
3
1
SD PLEO
1
1
SD 1
9
5
NM AL
3
4
NM PLEO
2
2
NM 1
4
4
NM 2
3
4
NM 3
4
4
NJ  AL
14
14
NJ PLEO
7
7
NJ DD 1
2
2
NJ DD 2
2
2
NJ DD 3
2
3
NJ DD 4
2
3
NJ DD 5
2
2
NJ DD 6
2
2
NJ DD 7
1
2
NJ DD 8
2
3
NJ DD 9
2
2
NJ DD 10
2
2
NJ DD 11
2
3
NJ DD 12
2
2
NJ  DD 13
1
2
NJ DD 14
2
2
NJ DD 15
2
3
NJ DD 16
2
2
NJ DD 17
2
2
NJ DD 18
2
3
NJ DD 19
2
2
NJ DD 20
2
2
DC AL
2
3
DC  MD 1
3
4
DC MD 2
3
3
DC PLEo
1
1
VI ST
Thomas
2
2
VI ST Croix
1
2
Guam
4
3
DA
9
4
PR AL
6
7
PR PLEO
3
4
PR 1
3
5
PR 2
3
3
PR 3
2
2
PR 4
2
2
PR 5
2
2
PR 6
2
2
PR 7
2
2
PR 8
3
3
1475
1249



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The Scorecard

The Scorecard

The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.

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About Me

Delegate Count

Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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