Early voting has begun in earnest in the three major battleground states where it will be crucial: Nevada, North Carolina and Florida. Nevada’s early vote accounted for 70% of the vote in 2012. In North Carolina it was 61%. In Florida it was 56%. Here is a quick look at where we are now.
(These numbers all come from electproject.org)
Nevada
Through Monday’s total, roughly 17% of the votes cast in Nevada in 2012 had already been cast in this election. Democrats hold approximately a 13% advantage among those who have returned ballots as opposed to a 6% statewide registration. This is just a touch better than in 2012. Since 2012 ended in a 6.6% win for Obama, it suggests everything is on track for Democrats to repeat their 2012 victory. It is still a little early to reach a final conclusion, but then again by the end of the day it is likely 20% of all the votes cast in Nevada will have been cast. Nevada is looking pretty cooked for Clinton.
North Carolina
Democrats have a big lead (nearly 20%) in the early vote in North Carolina. Roughly 15% of the 2012 vote has been cast. However Democrats always dominate early voting in North Carolina, and so far they are doing so at a slightly slower pace than in 2012. Diminished Democratic performance is somewhat mitigated by the fact that in many counties the number and quality of the polling place locations has decreased as compared to 2012. It is those counties and only those counties that are causing the decline. These Counties will soon open many more locations, and once that gets going the comparative ground might be made up. It is also important to note that doing as well as in 2012 early vote might not be necessary for Secretary Clinton. Even though Democrats lost in 2012, Republicans benefited from a big win on Election Day, one which might be harder to pull off when Republicans do not like their nominee nearly as much. In a week or so we will have a clearer picture.
Florida
At the moment Florida has something close to an absolute flat- footed tie. Republicans have cast about 7,000 more ballots than Democrats, but that only includes 1 day of in person Early Voting, which Democrats won by 24,000. In Florida we have also seen about 20% of the 2012 vote already cast. These numbers are slightly higher than in 2012, when Republicans built something of an advantage in mail ballots. Democrats had to needle away over the course of early vote. This year Democrats almost entirely erased their deficit after the first day of early vote. Dems will likely have the lead when today’s results are reported tomorrow. This is better than in 2012 and is considered by those in the know to be very good for Democrats, but a few more days will certainly help clarify.
Conclusion:
Nevada looks very good for Democrats, while North Carolina and Florida both look good but will require more results to warrant confirmation.
0 comments:
Post a Comment