The Republican Nightmare Scenario

The current polling now points to two possibilities in the presidential race: Trump loses in the five-point range or Trump loses in an absolute avalanche. There is not much polling to suggest it could be any better than that for Trump at this point. Although things can and do change quickly, the new sexual assault revelations seem to have set the arrow in a clear direction.  Because of this, we thought it was important to give an idea of what could happen if the bottom falls out of the Republican vote.

 Presidential elections tend to have much larger turnouts than those held during midterms. In 2012, around 129 million people voted. In 2014, only around 83 million voted. This gap is largely responsible for Republican control of Congress. The danger for Republicans in this election is that Democrats approach Presidential year turnout but Republicans, despondent over Trump’s chance to win or too disgusted to even bring themselves to vote, decide not to show up at the polls. It dramatically changes the calculus.

To give just a rough idea. There are 84 House districts in which the vote total for the Democratic candidate in 2012 would beat the winning total for the Republican in 2014. Now clearly some of these districts are just way too red to actually be in play. But the point stands that if you get asymmetric turnout you can have wacky results. Congressional Republicans’ allure alone is usually not enough to generate turnout high enough to save them. 

Trump may yet be able to stabilize somewhat. He might even come back. But for Republicans there is a very real danger that admission of defeat at the Presidential level will mean defeat down ballot as Trump supporters despair and don’t vote. 

Standing by Trump, however, carries its own dangers. Some voters are really furious about his candidacy and thus may not appreciate a kind word directed toward him by their representative. These cross-cutting pressures, combined with the risk of asymmetric turnout, is what could pull the Republicans under. There is very little Republicans can do about this problem either, which to some degree they know. The Access Hollywood tape brought a string of un-endorsements last weekend but since then silence and even a few re-endorsements. Alienating Trump people turned out to be a bad idea.   

The danger of both supporting Trump and not supporting Trump could lead to asymmetric turnout and Republican ruination. In such a case, upwards of 80 House seats and 10 or so Senate seats could actually fall. This is still very unlikely but it is no longer impossible.