Sorry
about missing last week. The data kept changing before we could get a report up,
and then it was already debate time.
However, in the two weeks since we wrote, things have gotten better for
Clinton. While she led in the two-way
RCP average by just .9% two weeks ago (44.9 to 44.0), today she leads by 3.8% (48.1%
to 44.3%). In the four-way race, two weeks ago it was .7 with Clinton at 41.0% and Trump at 40.3%. Now
it is 3.7% with Clinton at 44.3% to Trump at 40.6%. Besides the obvious
improvement for Clinton, one interesting take away is that both candidates have
gained support. Trump .3% in each
average and Clinton 2.9% in the head to head and 3% with the minor party
candidates included. Undecided voters are deciding, and so far they are mostly
picking Clinton. Clinton is also nudging
ever closer to having the amount of support that she needs to win without
adding from the group who might be undecided. We are still a long way to go,
but for the moment Clinton leads by about what Obama won by in 2012.
The Scorecard
The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.
Our Delegate Math
About Me
Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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